All factors are working in the New York Yankees favor for today’s game, but it’s up to the Bronx Bombers to deliver against a regressing Kyle Gibson as he makes his season debut for the Baltimore Orioles.
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Apr 29, 2025 • 12:24 ET • 4 min read
The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles continue their AL East duel tonight. The team from the Bronx looks to get back on level terms in the mid-week three-game set.
Baltimore dispatched New York last night in a game that went down to the end. It was a victory that continued some recent dominance for the Orioles over their divisional rival, as they have won four of the last five head-to-head matchups. Can the Yankees turn the tides today? We at least think their bats will do what’s needed.
My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions break down here as I bring you my MLB picks for the two teams’ meeting on Tuesday, April 29.
Yankees vs Orioles prediction
My Yankees vs Orioles best bet: Yankees Over 1.5 home runs (+110 at DraftKings)
It’s Kyle Gibson’s season debut day for the Baltimore Orioles.
When signed last year, Gibson agreed to be optioned to the minor leagues and was called up yesterday for the start here. I’m not sure his stint back in the majors will last long. I have real concerns about his hard-hit issues, and they have led me to my best bet. I can’t pass up plus money on this Yankees team to homer twice.
Here are some things that Gibson did last year at age 36:
He posted the highest barrel rate of his career, which put him in the bottom 20% of the sport at just over 9%.
He posted the highest two-year average hard-hit rate of his career at 41.8%.
Give up over five homers on three different pitches.
I’m not bought into the idea that he’s suddenly going to have some late-season renaissance when we’ve only seen signs of regression over the past three years. I’m especially low on that against a team like the New York Yankees. That’s a team that has suddenly become a great breaking ball-hitting squad, making up two of three primary pitches for Gibson.
They’ll enter this game with at least five players in the lineup with a hard-hit rate above 50% against at least one of those pitches. That’s a big hurdle for Gibson to overcome and not give up a few long balls. That doesn’t even account for what the bullpen could give up.
It certainly helps that the weather will be in our favor. Winds reaching 20 MPH will be around, and the temperatures will be approaching the lower 80’s. That’s a big deal regarding the shallow fences at Camden Yards.
Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Ben Rice HR
Cedric Mullins HR
Yankees moneyline
We’re going for a massive one here. Since you cannot use our best bet in a same-game parlay, I’ve elected to stick with the same thing and bet on one player from each team to go yard.
First things first, though. I expect the Yankees to win the game. My projections made them a much larger favorite than the -148 price. The biggest reason for that is the sizable pitching advantage I suspect New York has.
I took Ben Rice to go yard for the Yankees because I saw it as the better value than my other favorite option, Aaron Judge. Overall, when it comes to the aforementioned breaking ball pitches, he has the best average barrel rate amongst Yankees players against them.
We finished by taking Cedric Mullins to go deep. The very strong isolated power numbers against left-handed pitchers, combined with the weather, have given me nearly a 5% edge over the current market number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Yankees vs Orioles live odds
Yankees vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -140 | Baltimore +134
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+109) | Baltimore +1.5 (-122)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.62 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles.
How to watch Yankees vs Orioles and game info
Location Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD Date Tuesday, 4-29-2025 First pitch 6:35 p.m. ET TV YES, MASN Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon
(3-3, 3.50 ERA) Orioles starting pitcher TBD
(X-X, X.XX ERA)
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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