There are four exciting WTA Madrid quarterfinals scheduled. One of those is Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreva, and we at LWOT predict that blockbuster encounter in a separate article. The other three are predicted here, including Australian Open champion Madison Keys’ match against Iga Swiatek. Which players do you think will reach the semifinals?
WTA Madrid Quarterfinal Predictions
Elina Svitolina vs Moyuka Uchijima
Head-to-head: Svitolina 1-0 Uchijima
Uchijima has been the tournament’s surprise package. There is nothing flashy in the Japanese player’s game, but her relentless consistency secured wins against Jessica Pegula, Ons Jabeur, and Ekaterina Alexandrova. The win against Pegula, in particular, will give her confidence since Svitolina possesses a similar baseline game, although the Ukrainian puts a greater emphasis on attacking with her forehand compared to Pegula. Although Uchijima played well, she was helped by an awful performance from Pegula by her standards. Svitolina, who beat Elena Rybakina and has yet to drop a set in Madrid, will likely play much better. She is a slight favorite to end Uchijima’s run.
Prediction: Svitolina in 2
Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 2-0 Kostyuk
Kostyuk failed to win a set in her previous two matches against Sabalenka in 2022 and 2023, but she is a much better player now. Despite her significant improvements over the last 18 months, this remains a very challenging matchup for the Australian Open quarterfinalist, especially in Madrid. The quicker clay in the Spanish capital makes it much harder for Kostyuk to use her athleticism to defend against the world No. 1. Kostyuk’s fighting spirit is unlikely to be enough to prevent the two-time Madrid Open champion from reaching the semifinal.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek
Head-to-head: Swiatek 4-2 Keys
Keys’ extraordinary semifinal victory from match point down against Swiatek at the Australian Open was the best WTA match of 2025 so far. Although Keys’ run to glory in Melbourne will probably always be the memorable moment of her career, overcoming Swiatek in Madrid would be more impressive than the semifinal win at the Australian Open. The world No. 5 has lost her three matches on clay against the four-time French Open winner in straight sets. That includes an emphatic 6-1, 6-3 win for Swiatek in last year’s Madrid Open semifinal.
I expect Keys to be much more competitive this time. The 30-year-old is playing with more freedom than in previous years, and the quicker clay at the Madrid Open gives her a better chance than at other events on the dirt if she produces her best tennis. Overall, it is still tough to predict against Swiatek on a clay court, especially given her previous record against Keys. However, this match could go the distance.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
