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The defending champions New York Liberty will try to recover from a Rickea Jackson buzzer-beater which ended their five-game winning streak when they return to the floor Monday evening against the Dallas Wings. The Liberty have been re-energized by Jonquel Jones‘ return and are now just 3.5 games back of the Minnesota Lynx for the league’s best record. The Wings have been struggling in what was always going to be a rebuilding year, losing their last two games and six of their last seven. Even though Paige Bueckers has been averaging 18.1 points per game and is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year, there hasn’t been enough support to lift this team out of the WNBA cellar. Tipoff for Monday’s game is 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
If you’re interested in WNBA betting, WNBA odds and WNBA player props, you need to check out what experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have identified as their best bets for Liberty vs. Wings on Monday.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com — a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women’s game. Wetzel, the site’s lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).
Here are Wetzel and Barzilai’s best bets for New York vs. Dallas:
Liberty vs. Wings picks:
- New York -8.5
- New York to score first -135
New York -8.5
This is a classic example of sportsbooks overreacting to a star player being out. Like we saw with the Fever down Caitlin Clark on Sunday, the Liberty down Breanna Stewart are being very undervalued.
With Jonquel Jones back, this team still has plenty of firepower, depth, rebounding and defense. Against a far inferior Dallas team, which is playing the second half of a back-to-back, it should be enough to cover this line — even on the road.
New York to score first -135
With Jones back, the Liberty should once again be favored to win any jump ball that’s not against Brittney Griner. While Wings center Li Yueru is 6-foot-7, she hasn’t been very good at opening tips, sitting at just 3-6.
While that’s a small sample, her height is factored in a bit too much to this line. Given how much of an advantage the Liberty have on both sides of the floor, they may even score first if they don’t win the tip.
