The UFC men’s flyweight division takes center stage this weekend as rising contenders Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev face off in the main event at UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).
Kape, ESPN’s No. 8 flyweight, enters the bout following a third-round TKO win over Bruno Silva in December. Almabayev, unranked by ESPN, is undefeated inside the Octagon. A win over Kape would be his fifth consecutive UFC win and 18th victory in a row overall.
Brett Okamoto spoke to veteran MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and a pair of intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men’s flyweight: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev
Din Thomas, MMA coach and ESPN analyst
How Kape wins: Kape may have the most talent in all of the UFC. He’s so raw and creative, but sometimes he lacks discipline. I’d like to see him stay disciplined but maintain that creativity and let his hands go. If he can start combination punching, he will knock Almabayev out. If Kape is a little disciplined, there’s nothing stopping him from winning this fight.
How Almabayev wins: Almabayev has a terrific record, but this is a step up in competition. He needs to get this fight to the ground. He’s not fast enough nor accurate enough to hang with Kape when standing. Take this fight to the ground and contain Kape. Wear on him to slow him down. I don’t see Almabayev getting a finish, so he needs to do that for 25 minutes.
X factor: Almabayev’s power. I don’t see him getting a finish, but if Kape is playing around, Almabayev throws hard enough punches to hurt an opponent. So, if Kape allows it, this could be the X factor.
Prediction: Kape to win by stoppage.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Kape to win (-210) and over 2.5 rounds. Kape has all the skills to be a future champ in the UFC. To win, Kape must keep this fight standing. If he can fend off Almabayev’s takedowns and dictate the pace, Kape should get his hand raised at the end of the fight and possibly earn a shot at the flyweight title next.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Lightweight: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics
Ribovics to win (-300) and over 1.5 rounds. Ribovics has proved he can fight at a menacing pace and maintain power in his strikes as the fight goes on. Haqparast is very dangerous in a stand-up fight, but if put on his back, he is no longer a threat. I’m taking Ribovics as a near 2-to-1 favorite to win and taking over 1.5 rounds to get a better price.
Featherweight: Hyder Amil vs. William Gomis
Amil to win (+165). When I saw this matchup, I expected the odds to be the other way around, with Amil being favored over Gomis. It seems that sportsbooks are giving Gomis too much credit following a split decision win over Joanderson Brito in September. I believe Amil is the better fighter and can put on a menacing pace for three rounds to exhaust Gomis. Amil also does well at closing the distance and landing strikes with knockout power.
