The 2025 NBA Draft is underway — taking place over two days — and The Athletic’s draft expert Sam Vecenie and front office insider John Hollinger are analyzing each pick as it happens. Read below for Vecenie’s scouting assessment and Hollinger’s team fit.
1. Dallas Mavericks
Cooper Flagg | 6-foot-8 wing | 18 years old | Duke
Vecenie’s ranking: 1
Flagg is about as complete a prospect as I’ve evaluated in the years I’ve been doing this. I have him as the second-best prospect during my time as an evaluator since 2015, behind only Victor Wembanyama. But let’s compare Flagg to another Duke No. 1 pick: Zion Williamson. While I think Williamson’s theoretical ceiling was higher than Flagg’s, Flagg’s overall game on both ends of the court and his blend of skill level and craft will likely translate better to high-leverage situations. Two other factors make me pick Flagg over Williamson. First, with Flagg, there is no roster-building limitation. Because he’s so complete and such an elite competitor in terms of mentality, he’s an amplifier of those around him. With Williamson, you always needed to build a specific type of roster around him, likely needing to find the all-important floor-spacing center, a difficult archetype to acquire. Second, Williamson had injury concerns going back to high school. Flagg has not. The level of safety you get with Flagg drastically exceeds that of Williamson, even on draft day in 2019.
I see Flagg as a future All-NBA player with his upside being that he could become a top-five player in the league. His overall impact on the game on both ends of the floor is remarkable. He’s the exact kind of player you want to build your organization around in terms of temperament and mentality if you want to try to win championships. He’s an immediate organizational centerpiece.
Hollinger’s analysis: A sigh of relief from Dallas fans, as Nico Harrison didn’t trade down or select somebody else. In all seriousness, this is an absolute no-brainer of a pick. Flagg’s mid-case scenario is that he’s an All-Star by the end of his rookie contract, and he has MVP upside. The bigger question for the Mavs is whether they should nuke the rest of their veteran team and rebuild around Flagg.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Dylan Harper | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Rutgers
Vecenie’s ranking: 2
Harper is a terrific bet as a high-level NBA guard. He ticks nearly every box that you look for in that respect. He created rim pressure at an elite level this year at Rutgers, despite playing in an archaic offense that lacked spacing. He drew fouls regularly and showcased enough vision as a passer that you can buy into him as a primary playmaker. Defensively, he’s willing and competitive. He has great size, and you can see him playing up on that end in the biggest moments. Harper’s only cause for concern is that he needs to keep working through his pull-up game, given how important that piece of the puzzle is for lead NBA guards.
Harper just barely misses being a Tier One player for me and is near the top end of Tier Two. He projects as a potential All-Star with an All-NBA ceiling if things break right developmentally. But even if his next few years of development don’t quite hit that level, the floor here is quite high given his creativity with the ball, ability to shoot off of the catch and size on defense.
Hollinger’s analysis: Harper’s selection presents a crowd in the backcourt with last year’s Rookie of the Year, Stephon Castle, and the recently acquired former All-Star De’Aaron Fox. That may eventually force the Spurs to consider a trade, but the draft is first and foremost a talent grab and Harper is clearly the best talent left on the board.
3. Philadelphia 76ers
VJ Edgecombe | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Baylor
Vecenie’s ranking: 4
Edgecombe is one of the safest prospects in the draft. He’s an elite athlete functionally on the court, and his defense is genuinely tremendous. He is disruptive all over the court on the defensive end and makes opposing players’ lives miserable. On offense, Edgecombe is a shooter off the catch who started to show an ability to knock down shots from 3 off movement. He also knows how to cut and play off the ball well, as we’ve seen in a variety of situations. His mentality to do whatever helps the team most also projects well into his being a positive-value player who helps winning basketball teams throughout his career.
Ultimately, Edgecombe’s upside will be tied to whatever level you think he can reach on the ball. Do you buy into his work ethic enough to think he will become a player who can create advantages at the NBA level with his athleticism? Right now, there is a bit of a skill deficit when it comes to handling the ball and shooting pull-ups. He’s also not that nuanced in ball screens. I’ve been using the comparison of Gary Harris if you attached a jet pack to him throughout the season for Edgecombe. That player is probably a top-40 player in the NBA at his ceiling, given that Harris, without this level of athleticism, had a three-year stretch in Denver in which he averaged 15 points, three rebounds and three assists on 47/39/80 shooting splits while getting All-Defense votes in two of those three years. I might be a touch lower than the consensus on Edgecombe’s ceiling. Still, a top-40 player projection that I feel is relatively safe makes Edgecombe a top-five player in this class.
Hollinger’s analysis: Not a shock to me that Philadelphia kept the pick even after shopping it all over. That’s just the way this front office operates; they want to find out the value of what they have first. Edgecombe was the No. 3 player on my board and addresses Philly’s glaring lack of athleticism up and down the roster.
4. Charlotte Hornets
Kon Knueppel | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Duke
Vecenie’s ranking: 3
Knueppel gets unfairly characterized as just a shooter. The versatility of his game makes him such an attractive prospect. It’s hard to find players in the NBA who can dribble, pass, shoot, make decisions and defend on top of having solid positional size. Knueppel proved he could do all those things this season, and that’s why I believe he can become the kind of player who helps a team win. He’ll likely be an elite shooter who can get to his shot from a variety of situations. That’s the skill he’ll be able to build his career on early. As defenders close out on him, he should be able to add to his game and build off that threat. We know he can make decisions and pass, and we know he’s comfortable putting the ball on the deck. Realistically, the only thing I’m worried about with Knueppel is the defensive end, where the slow feet might hinder him at the highest levels, but it likely won’t hurt him much in the regular season.
It’s possible I end up looking silly, and Knueppel becomes nothing more than a solid rotation player. However, my read is that he’ll become the kind of starting-caliber wing who helps you win a lot. In the modern NBA, especially if teams are going to keep allowing the physicality to escalate, this is the kind of player I want on my team in the biggest moments because he is purely additive to those around him.
Hollinger’s analysis: There were rumors that this pick was in play for a move down by Charlotte, but ultimately the Hornets likely didn’t feel great about their ability to trade back and still get their guy. Knueppel is a great fit with the Hornets, a wing who can score and address their lack of shooting. Also, score another for my draft board, as I had Knueppel as my No. 4 prospect and the top option left on the board.
5. Utah Jazz
Ace Bailey | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Rutgers
Vecenie’s ranking: 6
The ceiling for Bailey is the second-best player in this class if he improves his areas of need. Particularly, he needs to improve his flexibility and ability to play with bend while also getting stronger. That would allow him to access more power and use his gifts across the court in a more functional manner. Once he does that, Bailey would be able to start working on improving his gathers and ball pickups around the rim on his drives to improve his finishing, which would also hopefully get defenders more off-balance and give him more options. That would improve his shooting percentages, which again, even on pull-ups this year, were markedly low. Then, on defense, it would allow him to play the leverage game better. Hopefully, better engagement on that end would follow, too, but he showed enough upside on that end to become a player. If all of this happens, there’s serious All-Star upside. Anyone who says that doesn’t exist is flat-out wrong. There is a chance Bailey could morph into a playmaker and star-level difference-maker on the wing.
Ultimately, though, it all feels like a bit of a house of cards. He needs to improve the bend and flexibility, which would then improve certain parts of his game. Then, he’d need to also keep improving the shooting percentage, and oh, by the way, he’d also need to keep improving his ability to make decisions off his drives as a passer, and then on top of that he needs to get locked in more consistently and showcase better engagement on defense regularly. There are just a lot of moving parts that make me somewhat uncomfortable with drafting a player like this in the top five. There are so many areas that need improvement. The good news is there’s a floor. Already, Bailey is a shooter off the catch and a player with size, length and athleticism who has shown moments on defense at 18 years old. That should allow him to stick in the NBA for a long while, even if the upside case doesn’t totally come together.
Bailey is a project. He’s one worth investing in, but it’s going to take time as he continues to mature. Hopefully, he lands in a situation that gives him that chance.
Hollinger’s analysis: Our first surprise! Nobody was sure what the Jazz would do with the fifth pick under new management with Austin Ainge in charge, but they grab Ace Bailey just ahead of the two teams (Washington and New Orleans) that were rumored to be most interested in him. I wasn’t that excited about Bailey, but I’m more pessimistic than most; the other interesting part will be how he fits in a Jazz frontcourt that already has Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler.
6. Washington Wizards
Tre Johnson | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Texas
Vecenie’s ranking: 5
I’m a believer in Johnson’s game and demeanor. I respect the way he goes about his craft and think he’s going to keep getting better as he ages. Ultimately, two things will be key to his reaching his upside. First, he’s going to have to get stronger. He needs to be able to displace players on his drives a bit more effectively. He’s not afraid of contact. The good news there is he’s only 19 and a worker. He will get stronger. The second point will simply be fit. It would behoove him to land in a situation that allows him to streamline his offensive game early into being more of a high-level floor spacer and movement shooter who attacks off closeouts as opposed to being tasked with creating a significant amount of his team’s offense. Hopefully, that would allow him to get minutes on the court early, then continue to flow into the rest of his game off the bounce, where he can use the threat of his shot to expand his game as he gets older and stronger.
The median/downside outcome of Johnson reminds me of a bigger version of Malik Beasley, and I don’t mean that as a negative. Beasley has averaged about 14 points per game while shooting 39 percent from 3 on seriously high volume over the last five years and is going to earn nearly nine figures by the time it’s done. It’s just hard for shooters like Johnson to fail much more than that in today’s NBA. If Johnson can be a better, bigger version of that, who doesn’t need to be hidden defensively as often and can make better decisions consistently, he’s a definite NBA starter. These are all achievable outcomes, too. But there are some outcomes where he develops into a 25-point-per-game guy and potentially reaches the All-Star game.
Hollinger’s analysis: One rumor making the rounds is that the Ace Bailey non-workout controversy was all part of a plan to ensure he landed in Washington. Welp. I wasn’t as high on Johnson as others, but the Wizards need help across the board and he was the best player available on several public draft boards. Washington now has a surfeit of shooting guards with C.J. McCollum, Marcus Smart and Bub Carrington, but trades will likely have that worked out that by midseason.
7. New Orleans Pelicans
Jeremiah Fears | 6-3 guard | 18 years old | Oklahoma
Vecenie’s ranking: 18
I’m going to be lower on Fears than probably anybody in the public sphere, although his stock is much more split among NBA decision-makers than the public would lead you to believe. That’s because with small, on-ball-only players — and I believe that’s what he is — you either buy into them as potential All-Star lead guards or you don’t. If you don’t, you probably see them as more likely to be bench scorers, which diminishes their value drastically. Think about how narrow that line is for Collin Sexton, who had a more impressive freshman season at Alabama than Fears did at Oklahoma. Sexton has developed into a lights-out shooter and works hard on defense. But because he’s so small, he isn’t quite good enough as a passer and struggles to defend. He has never been part of a winning team as a starting guard.
With how I evaluate players and value the ability to dribble, pass, shoot and defend on top of having positional size, Fears ultimately doesn’t clear the line because of his shooting struggles, finishing problems and significant defensive deficiencies. I don’t deny that Fears will likely be a productive NBA player at some point. There’s a solid chance he averages more than 17 points and five assists per game eventually. He’s that crafty and skilled as a ballhandler. It’s exceptionally difficult to stay in front of him.
However, I think we’re probably quite a long way from that occurring, given how young he is. More importantly, there is such a narrow path toward winning in the NBA with this type of player in a prominent role. His development essentially has to go perfectly from this point for him to be an All-Star; otherwise, he’s probably coming off the bench on a good team. Maybe he will continue to work his way into being that player and I’ll look stupid for having him here. It’s entirely possible. Ultimately, though, he is the kind of player I’m comfortable missing out on.
Hollinger’s analysis: I like Fears’ upside, ranking him fifth on my board and the best player available, and think this is a worthwhile pick for a Pelicans franchise that needs talent in the backcourt and faces a question mark in Dejounte Murray’s recovery from a torn Achilles. However, it does undoubtedly raise questions about the defense with a Fears-Jordan Poole combo in the backcourt and Zion Williamson up front.
8. Brooklyn Nets
Egor Demin | 6-8 guard | 19 years old | BYU
Vecenie’s ranking: 26
If you think Demin can turn the corner in the NBA with the increased driving lanes that he’ll see, can improve his shot and can defend using his length more consistently, then you should have him as a top-10 player in the class. The tools here are outrageously interesting given his spectacular feel for the game as a passer and processor.
I just wish that I could get there. Unfortunately, Demin has no track record of shooting, which makes me wonder how he’s supposed to score at the next level if that doesn’t develop. And if he can’t score, he likely won’t be able to consistently force the help rotations that would help him get the best out of his passing ability in half-court settings. Then on defense, I haven’t seen enough to believe that he can bring physicality and hold his line against physical drivers.
If the jumper comes along for Demin, there is a chance that he is extremely valuable. Being able to shoot off the bounce and get to his step-back would open up the world for him as a driver and scorer, and thus allow him to leverage his elite passing ability. There might not be a more important swing skill in this class than Demin’s jumper. I’m ultimately not enough of a buyer on his touch to believe that it’s going to come at a difference-making level. There’s every chance that Demin ends up making this ranking look quite bad if the jumper works out. But if I don’t buy into that, then I have to rank him quite lowly here, as the floor is that he ends up back in Europe within three years.
Hollinger’s analysis: There had been persistent chatter about teams trading up into this region of the draft to select Duke big man Khaman Maluach, especially into Toronto’s spot at No. 9, but the Nets zigged where others thought they might zag. I’m a fan of Demin’s long-term potential as a big, ballhandling wing who can pass — the thing every team is looking for! — but he has to develop as a scorer to weaponize the threat of his passing. On a rebuilding Nets team, he’ll have plenty of time to develop. And Brooklyn still has four more firsts to come!
9. Toronto Raptors
Collin Murray-Boyles | 6-7 | 20 years old | South Carolina
Vecenie’s ranking: 8
Given Murray-Boyles’ profile, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he is quite polarizing for NBA teams. Some see a dynamic, multi-positional defender whom they can work with as a shooter to get true difference-making outcomes. In those cases, teams tend to think they could even play Murray-Boyles minutes at the five because of how strong he is through his chest, allowing him to play more as a screen-and-short-roll player on offense to mitigate some of the spacing concerns of playing him away from the center position. Other teams see him as more of a guy who’s caught between positions and could struggle to make an impact unless the jumper ends up coming through, since he’s not a downhill, athletic force.
I have Murray-Boyles ranked eighth, and I can assure you, if I were on the NBA team side, I would not have him here. In that case, I’d have a specific situation I’d be drafting him into and thus would know how likely it would be that my coaching staff could get the best out of him. If I were in that situation, there’s a case I would have Murray-Boyles as high as No. 5 — if I had the right players and a creative coach with him. But if I were in a situation in which I felt like my coaching staff wouldn’t know how to best use him because of the roster fit around him, I’d probably have him outside the lottery. I have him slotted here as a nice middle ground between those two outcomes. More than anything, I am hopeful Murray-Boyles can continue working on his shot, and that he gets selected by a coach who is creative defensively and lets him loose in ways that allow him to thrive.
Hollinger’s analysis: This pick may surprise some people, but I had Murray-Boyles as the No. 6 prospect on my board. I think he’s the best defender in the draft, and his offensive game is coming along enough to be projectible as a quality role player at worse. The lefty needs to lose some weight to move from a college center to a pro forward and has to develop his right hand and his 3-point shot, but both his feet and feel are elite.
10. Phoenix Suns (from Houston)
Khaman Maluach | 7-1 big | 18 years old | Duke
Vecenie’s ranking: 11
Maluach’s size, length, lateral ability and work ethic are extremely enticing tools for NBA teams. If you look across the league, the NBA prefers to get bigs into their systems when they’re quite young. It’s rare to come across a starting NBA center who played more than two years in college or two years as a draft-eligible player overseas. That’s because tools matter, and coaching staffs have gotten quite good at teaching bigs to use them. Given that Maluach is receptive to learning and coachable, there are teams that will buy into his game and believe they can work with what he has at his disposal.
Ultimately, his upside is the question. For me, Maluach is more of a Mitchell Robinson- or Nic Claxton-style low-usage, high-efficiency big on offense as opposed to some of the more productive high-efficiency rollers such as Jarrett Allen or Ivica Zubac. His higher center of gravity worries me in terms of his ability to add functional basketball strength and roll with downhill force toward the rim. He’ll be awesome on the offensive glass like most of those players. I’m more skeptical than some of the jumper turning into something functional, but it would be a bonus. Still, these players almost always end up returning value if they can defend, and while Maluach has some things to fix there, I believe he will defend well. I see him as something in the ballpark of a league-average starting center. That’s worth a later lottery pick, but I’m also not quite as on board with some who see Maluach as a swing for the fences.
Hollinger’s analysis: Houston made this pick, but the Rockets will be trading it to the Suns once the Kevin Durant trade executes on July 6. The frontcourt-starved Suns had been rumored as a Maluach destination for a while, but he’s a developmental player going to a win-now system. I’m a little worried about the fit if he isn’t able to take rotation minutes immediately and might have gone for Georgetown’s Thomas Sorber instead. That said, if Maluach can’t beat out Nick Richards and Oso Ighodaro, he probably shouldn’t be the 10th pick in the draft.
11. Memphis Grizzlies (from Portland)
Cedric Coward | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | Washington State
Vecenie’s ranking: 9
I’m a believer in the hype for Coward. I had him as a top-35 player entering the season, and he looked well on his way to being a first-round pick before his shoulder injury. He has everything it takes to turn into a useful, starting-quality NBA player. He’s extremely long and has a beautiful 3-point shot with a track record of success. He has defensive bona fides and shows a desire to be impactful on that end. He makes good decisions in the way he processes basketball and moves at a high level without the basketball. And he has an elite frame that he continues to grow into more and more every season. I’m a bit worried some of the on-ball stuff won’t ever come to fruition, and the lack of a track record against elite competition gives me enough pause not to go overboard in how I rank him. Still, there’s every reason to believe he can be an impact NBA player, and the lottery ranking here certainly reflects that.
Hollinger’s analysis: Zach Kleiman once again trades up to get his guy; this pick was made by Portland but is being sent to the Grizzlies, who weren’t confident Coward would get to them at 16. The Grizzlies have been desperate for size and skill on the wing, something exacerbated by the recent trade of Desmond Bane, and hope that Coward can be a plug-and-play rotation player despite playing only six games for the Cougars last season. Memphis paid a heavy price to move up five spots, sending out a future first and two seconds.
12. Chicago Bulls
Noa Essengue | 6-10 big | 18 years old | Ratiopharm Ulm
Vecenie’s ranking: 16
Essengue is a really tough prospect to evaluate. On one hand, he’s productive in a professional league overseas and has some athletic traits that make him potentially valuable. On the other, the German league is not great (it’s a level below the French and Adriatic Leagues) and he has some flaws that could cause him issues in the NBA. He struggles to shoot the ball and hasn’t shown many moments as a high-level passer this season. His ballhandling needs to tighten up. Then on defense, he shows impressive flashes, but the possession-by-possession consistency isn’t there and he often will get beat both on and off the ball. Essengue is a project, and the willingness to go down the road with him will vary team to team. Some will love his athletic traits and think they can develop everything else to turn him into the exact kind of big forward who can cover an immense amount of ground on both ends. Others will not be as interested because he is not as far along as his production suggests.
Hollinger’s analysis: Once again a solid forward prospect falls into Chicago’s lap in the late lottery; last year it was Matas Buzelis, and this year it is Essengue. While there may be some mild concern about overlap among the two, Essengue was clearly the best player on the board. He’ll need to fill out his body and improve his 3-point shot, but Chicago fans will note a resemblance to a recent Bulls forward in Essengue’s DeRozan-esque ability to get himself to the free-throw line.
13. New Orleans Pelicans (from Atlanta)
Derik Queen | 6-10 big | 20 years old | Maryland
Vecenie’s ranking: 12
Queen is, unsurprisingly, a polarizing player for NBA teams. Some see the idea of a playmaking center in the Alperen Şengün mold, a productive player who will average 20 points and 10 rebounds for a long time. There’s plenty of reason to buy into that. Simply put, Queen has been wildly productive at every stage of his career. He has innate feel for the game and a tremendous skill set on offense that should translate, thanks to his balance and perimeter talent. And yet, there are reasons for skepticism. Defensively, he’ll be asked to do far more than he was at Maryland in the NBA and put in disadvantageous positions. Queen will need to work incredibly hard to become more capable on that end and even then, he may not hit a certain level because he lacks great physical traits.
The best thing that Queen can do is continue to work on his conditioning and footwork. Becoming a better shooter would also give him outs as a valuable player if star-level production doesn’t come, as there are probably some Naz Reid-level outcomes in his trajectory if his shooting improves without the defense reaching a certain level. It’s probably up to Queen with how good he wants to be. If he can keep doing the right things with his body like he did this year, there are outcomes that make him a very valuable player and All-Star. If he regresses in any way on this front, there are a lot of outcomes that probably don’t result in him impacting winning basketball at a high level. But it’s hard to envision a floor for him outside the NBA. He’s too skilled not to be useful as a backup center even if things go haywire.
Hollinger’s analysis: One persistent rumor this week was that newly installed Pelicans executive vice president Joe Dumars was leaning heavily on former Pistons, Thunder and Wizards exec Troy Weaver for the draft. This seems to be a tell, as Weaver was renowned for loving both frontcourt players and guys from the D.C. area during his Pistons tenure. I don’t love Queen’s fit with Zion Williamson, given that both are suspect on D and neither is a shooter, and he’ll be challenged to maintain his iffy conditioning in an organization whose health and performance infrastructure isn’t exactly renowned. The Pelicans also paid a heavy price by surrendering an unprotected 2026 first that is the better of the Pelicans or Bucks just to move up 10 spots and take Queen.
14. San Antonio Spurs
Carter Bryant | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Arizona
Vecenie’s ranking: 10
Bryant profiles extremely well as a 3-and-D player in the NBA. He has great positional size for a wing and already has defensive chops. He’s aggressive and a high-level competitor who turns up the pressure on that end of the court, plus he has terrific playmaking instincts to get into passing lanes and find weakside rim rotations. He profiles as being switchable on defense and should be able to manage perimeter players. By the time he gets even stronger in his early 20s, he’ll also have no issues managing even fours. The key is finding a role on offense. I’m a little skeptical of his overall game on that end, but he is extremely likely to be a shooter. This could result in his being something of a low-usage player if the ballhandling and passing acumen never totally come along, but this kind of player would still be valuable if he has to be guarded as a shooter and is switchable on defense.
The guy Bryant reminds me of most is former No. 2 pick Marvin Williams. If that doesn’t sound all that sexy, remember that Williams played for 15 years, started over 800 career games and averaged 11 points and five rebounds over 13 years while making nine figures despite being drafted in 2005. That kind of career would return lottery value, and that’s where I have Bryant ranked.
Hollinger’s analysis: I really like Bryant’s fit as a 3-and-D role player, and he goes to the perfect spot in San Antonio. The Spurs already have their backcourt set and obviously the center position is locked down, but they need a forward with size and shooting ability to fill the Harrison Barnes role as their young core develops. Bryant is perfectly cut out for the job, in addition to being the best prospect left on my board. This couldn’t have worked out much better for San Antonio.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thomas Sorber | 6-9 big | 19 years old | Georgetown
Vecenie’s ranking: 15
Sorber is a fascinating player. On some level, he looks like a relic of a past generation at 6-foot-9 with a bigger-bodied frame. He also lacks some degree of explosiveness that many bigs possess. And yet, he has a remarkably productive game that is very modern in its construction. He has a great natural feel for the game and excels at keeping advantages that guards create for him because of his passing on the move. His natural reactivity is also enticing, and I think there is some improvement potential with his frame. When you see him in person, he looks quite young and like he’s still growing into his body.
Here’s the other thing: He’s remarkably productive across the box score in a way that players his age never are. The only other high-major freshman or sophomore to average at least 14 points, eight rebounds, two assists, two blocks and 1.5 steals before Sorber did it this season, per Sports-Reference, was Chris Webber at Michigan. The easiest way to explain it is that he’s just one of those players who gets stuff done on the court with his length and impeccable hand-eye coordination. He’s a bit more of a project than a ready-made player, but there’s enough upside that I think he can develop into a starting center.
Hollinger’s analysis: The Thunder have a roster crunch to deal with; Sorber is their 16th contract, and the league only lets you keep 15. Setting that part aside, he gives the Thunder an obvious pathway to a future where they can’t afford to keep Isaiah Hartenstein, and gives them the kind of big-bodied center they haven’t had even as they’ve ascended to the top of the league. I had Sorber ranked 10th on my board, and he was my top center, ahead of Maluach and Queen. He’ll have some time to develop before the Thunder count on him for big minutes.
16. Portland Trail Blazers (from Memphis)
Hansen Yang | 7-1 big | 20 years old | Qingdao
Vecenie’s ranking: 48
Yang has several intriguing skills. Any time a player is this big with elite passing vision and touch around the rim, there’s going to be a lot of intrigue. I worry that it’s going to be hard for Yang to actualize those things in the NBA because of his high-hipped frame, lack of explosiveness and lack of lateral ability. Even though skill absolutely matters with players like this and is what makes them special, the guys who tend to make it in this mold are generally the biggest bullies on the court: Think Nikola Jokić, Domantas Sabonis, Nikola Vucevic and even Karl-Anthony Towns to some extent. They all can put their shoulder into NBA big men and move them backward to establish position wherever they need to on the court. Yang doesn’t have that ability, unfortunately. His defensive translation to the NBA is a major question, too. I love big, skilled centers who can give you a chance to play five-out basketball. I just don’t buy Yang enough as a shooter and don’t buy the functionality of his game enough against the best athletes in the world. He’d absolutely be worth a stash in the mid-second round in case this changes at some point, but I don’t know that he’s ready to come over to the NBA yet.
Hollinger’s analysis: I’m sorry … WHAT???!?!?!?! Nobody had Yang as a first-rounder. Literally nobody. He’s big and fairly skilled and I think he’s potentially a solid backup because of his offense, but this is a serious reach by the Blazers on a player most expected to last well into the second round. (Memphis made this pick, technically, but as noted above the Grizzlies swapped spots 11 and 16 with Portland). The Blazers already had a surfeit of centers with Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams, and 2024 lottery pick Donovan Clingan, so it’s not even clear what Yang’s pathway is to minutes in Portland. I do not get this at all.
17. Minnesota Timberwolves
Joan Beringer | 6-11 big | 18 years old | KK Cedevita Olimpija
Vecenie’s ranking: 13
Where you fall on Beringer will ultimately be determined by your willingness to take on a project. It’s going to take time to get Beringer up to speed across the board. He’s still exceptionally raw and learning the game. Things move fast for him right now, and his reactions can often be slow in the way that they tend to be when you’re first learning how to do something. Still, there’s not a big man in this class who moves better than Beringer. He’s exceptionally twitchy when he’s on the floor and when he lifts off the ground to block a shot or dunk. He also is flexible and plays with genuine bend. Not many people this size move like this.
Given that he’s also highly regarded from a character perspective, it’s hard not to buy into him as an NBA player at some point. At the very least, he could turn into a backup center. There is more upside than that, as he could easily turn into a Capela-style big man who runs the floor, defends well and finishes on the interior. The athletic traits are ridiculous to go with his hands. But realistically, every NBA team will feel differently about whether it is willing to take on Beringer as a project. Some do not have interest, and others see him as a starting center of the future if they can get him the right coaching and development.
Hollinger’s analysis: Beringer is a developmental teenage center who impressed with his potential in the Adriatic League; I had him rated lower than most due to concerns about his limited offensive potential, but there is a pathway here for his shot-blocking to eventually supplant that of Rudy Gobert as he develops. Minnesota may also have felt some pressure to go big here given the potential free agency of Naz Reid and Julius Randle.
18. Utah Jazz (from Washington)
Walter Clayton Jr. | 6-2 guard | 22 years old | Florida
Vecenie’s ranking: 19
I’ve long loved Clayton as a player, and he has been featured on The Athletic’s Big Board within the top 45 throughout the entire season, even before the explosive end to his collegiate career. But his improvements over the last three months of his college career have rightfully pushed him into first-round status. His ability to play more consistently at pace with his hoppy cadence to find his shot off two feet has made him lethal to deal with defensively. He’s an underrated athlete in terms of explosiveness and balance. He competes on defense and is strong, even if his size will create limitations. It’s easy to see Clayton developing into a high-end scorer off the bench in the NBA, and there is upside beyond that if he proves capable of improving his ball-screen reads and becoming an even better passer. It’s hard to find scoring guards with this kind of pull-up gravity, so Clayton should rightfully be sought-after.
Hollinger’s analysis: Washington is trading this pick to Utah. Clayton is the first senior off the board after he showcased his deep shooting ability during Florida’s run to the NCAA title. He’ll get chances to earn point guard minutes on a rebuilding Jazz squad; Utah has a couple of other young guards on the roster, but they’ve already been given chances and haven’t shown much. Clayton profiles as a combo guard whose long-distance game works best with other ballhandlers around him, so we’ll see what else the Jazz can add to the backcourt.
19. Brooklyn Nets
Nolan Traore | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Saint-Quentin
Vecenie’s ranking: 22
It is difficult to be as productive as Traore was in the French league and in the Basketball Champions League this season. He averaged 12 points and five assists with nearly a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is awesome for an 18-year-old. He’s terrific with the ball and has a sense for how to get his teammates involved as a passer and playmaker.
Ultimately, Traore will need to develop his jumper. He’s not quite as quick as Jeremiah Fears and will need the threat of the jumper to get defenders off-balance. Otherwise, he’s probably going to end up as more of a backup point guard. But if the shot comes along, he could be the kind of solid lead guard who makes good decisions, scores when required and defends his position.
Hollinger’s analysis: Traore had a rough year in France but still has fans from his standout performance at the 2024 Nike Hoop Summit; he was seen as a potential top-five pick a year ago before his stock fell. He is the second of five Brooklyn first-round picks, and it will be interesting to see how the roster looks if the Nets end up keeping all five.
20. Miami Heat
Kasparas Jakučionis | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Illinois
Vecenie’s ranking: 7
Jakučionis is a tremendously skilled basketball player who fits into the kind of archetype that I love. I’m a big fan of players who can dribble, pass, shoot, process the game at a high level and have good positional size. The reason I love those players is that they just have so many outs. If Jakučionis ends up not being able to separate enough on the ball, I feel confident in his ability to play off the ball and hammer advantages that are created for him by high-level creative guards because he can shoot, drive and read what’s going on around him to make excellent passing reads. Think of something in this respect like a better passing Bogdan Bogdanovic, who has averaged 14 points per game over eight years in the NBA and has also been sneaky awesome in the playoffs and big international events.
Jakučionis is also a truly special passer who I hope continues to work on his craft as a ballhandler to get separation from his man consistently without turning the ball over and feeling rushed. There would be some really high-upside outcomes in his profile if that ever happened. My read is to bet on him being more of a great secondary ballhandler who can play with and help your starters while also running second units, but don’t discount the potential for more.
Hollinger’s analysis: This is a bit of a slide for Jakučionis, who was seen by many as a potential top-10 pick, but I also think it’s a more realistic landing spot for a guy who probably projects as a combo guard off the bench more than a long-term starter. Miami could use a guy like him, though, because he can handle the ball and shoot stepback 3s; he offers a nice contrast in the backcourt to defensive bulldog Davion Mitchell.
21. Washington Wizards (from Utah)
Will Riley | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Illinois
Vecenie’s ranking: 23
I ended up a bit higher on Riley than I expected coming into the draft process largely because I loved the growth within his offensive game throughout the season. Riley is fearless as a driver and can play as a secondary creator. He also showed better understanding of how to make passing reads than I expected this year and has a really natural feel for the game. Ultimately, two big questions stop me from moving Riley higher. First, I worry that his frame won’t allow him to consistently play through contact at the NBA level effectively on either end in spite of that fearlessness. Second, his jumper is too inconsistent to rely upon. His mechanics are really spotty. While I buy that he has touch and I think it will improve in time, he has to get to a level of being a sub-elite shooter to reach his peak level of effectiveness. Ultimately, I buy that Riley has a chance to be a good NBA player. I’m not sure that I’d want to be the team that has to draft and develop him, as I think he’s more likely to pop as a good player in his second stop as opposed to his first.
Hollinger’s analysis: The Wizards moved down from 18 to pick here in return for pick 43 and two future seconds from Utah (2031 and 2032). This organization has shown a consistent preference for working with raw clay, even if it means younger players who aren’t filled out physically — the parallels between this pick and the selection of Bub Carrington in 2024 are hard to ignore. Washington got a great return on its move down three spots in the draft, but I’m not as bullish on Riley’s game.
22. Brooklyn Nets (from Atlanta)
Drake Powell | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | North Carolina
Vecenie’s ranking: 34
I’m a big believer in Powell’s defense, which is why I’m willing to rank him as a top-40 prospect despite having as many questions as I do about his offensive game. He is terrific on that end of the court. He’s awesome on the ball and does a good enough job staying engaged off the ball. For a freshman, his instincts were quite good. My only issue is that he’s a such a significant project on offense that I worry about him being able to get on the floor before his first contract’s clock runs out. He would need to iron out the jumper within the next year or so and feel much more comfortable getting it off at volume than he seems to be now. I would bet on Powell being a useful NBA player by the time he’s 25 or so, much in the same vein as someone like Derrick Jones Jr. as a defensive specialist. But you’re drafting him at 19, unfortunately, and I worry that the process is going to take a bit too long. But the bet on him figuring out the jumper sooner rather than later pushes him just above the two-way contract level and into guaranteed contract range for me.
Hollinger’s analysis: This pick is going from Atlanta to Brooklyn in the Kristaps Porziņģis trade. It is the Nets’ third pick of the first round, and they still have picks 26 and 27. Powell is the best athlete left on the board, but his offensive projection is a bit concerning; if he makes it is likely to be as a defense-and-energy guy. Brooklyn will hope it can fine-tune his shooting and decision-making to the point that Powell has rotation-level utility.
23. Atlanta Hawks (from New Orleans)
Asa Newell | 6-9 big | 19 years old | Georgia
Vecenie’s ranking: 29
Newell’s NBA role is a question mark. It’s hard to play on the court if you don’t put immense pressure on the rim as a roller, don’t see the court well as a passer and also don’t shoot consistently. Newell was productive and efficient this year purely by using his athleticism to his advantage, but I wonder how it all looks for him on offense when that advantage goes away. I’d feel much better about his profile if he were a shooter already, but he’s not there, having hit only 29.2 percent of his 3s. I buy him as a useful rotational player on defense who will cover ground and occasionally make plays both on the interior and perimeter. But I’m not sure that it’ll be good enough for him to stick on the court while he works through his jumper concerns. I like the athletic tools enough that I think he can stick as a backup big man, but it’s going to take some time for him as he works through his feel for the game on defense, his frame and his offensive skills. If Newell turns into a shooter, he probably sticks in the NBA. If he doesn’t, there are concerns. I have him as more of a late first-round player as opposed to a mid-first-round guy.
Hollinger’s analysis: This pick goes from New Orleans to Atlanta, and the Hawks stay local by taking the Athens native and Bulldogs product, adding to a reshaped frontcourt that includes the recently acquired Kristaps Porziņģis. The Hawks ran out of quality frontcourt bodies at the end of last season, and this seems to be a clear area of emphasis for the Hawks’ offseason, especially with Clint Capela’s likely free agency departure. Newell also might be underrated given his lack of electrifying highlights; analytic models view the southpaw more favorably than the eye test.
24. Sacramento Kings (from Oklahoma City)
Nique Clifford | 6-5 wing | 23 years old | Colorado State
Vecenie’s ranking: 25
Clifford is older, and his track record when he was younger doesn’t inspire much excitement. However, his improvement over the past two years has been remarkable. He consistently proved he can play with anyone. He also possesses skills that NBA teams covet as he’s a wing who can process the game, dribble, pass, shoot and defend all while having solid positional size. It’s hard to find NBA players who can bring all of those things to the floor.
If Clifford ends up failing, it’ll likely be because his jumper was too streaky and he couldn’t quite settle in. If that happens, the rest of his offensive game could fall apart. But he’s been a good enough shooter over the larger sample of the last two years that I’m willing to bet on it, and him. Clifford profiles as a solid rotational wing who could be a starter when surrounded by the right stars in the NBA.
Hollinger’s analysis: As I suspected, the Thunder are trading this pick because they already have 16 players on the roster for next season and need to cut it by at least one. Clifford has a nice role-player resume with his defense and decision-making and could fit in on a roster that is short on wings, especially if he can knock down perimeter shots consistently.
25. Orlando Magic
Jase Richardson | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | Michigan State
Vecenie’s ranking: 17
It’s hard to be a small guard in the NBA, and I’m not totally convinced Richardson is ready for the leap. It took Tom Izzo a while to realize weaponizing Richardson was his best chance to get efficient offense, but Izzo also did a great job of hiding some of Richardson’s weaknesses by constantly putting him in the right positions in zoom/Chicago actions, where could get the ball going downhill to his favored left hand. Richardson is going to have to spend the next few years diversifying his all-around game to make it work in the NBA given how thin the margin for error is for smaller guards. The good news is he has terrific touch and amazing contact balance through bumps. If he can find the right team situation or can improve his separation ability, he has a shot to be a useful scoring guard. But he simply won’t be for everyone because of how they will have to work around his limitations with his right hand, as a passer and as a pull-up shooter early in his career.
Hollinger’s analysis: Richardson’s size is a concern for somebody who won’t be able to play point guard full time on offense, but this is a nearly perfect roster fit for him. Richardson can play off the ball in Orlando because Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero have the rock, and his ability to knock down shots will be a big help to an Orlando team that struggled mightily from outside a year ago. I had Richardson 14th on my board; he doesn’t have enormous upside, but he might be able to play right away.
26. Brooklyn Nets
Ben Saraf | guard | 6-6 guard | 19 years old | Ratiopharm Ulm
Vecenie’s ranking: 28
Saraf’s ability to decelerate and play with slow steps on his gathers is one of my favorite skills in this class. It’s a difficult skill to guard at any level, especially given that Saraf doesn’t just use it around the rim, but he can weaponize it off the dribble, too. It’s very easy to imagine this aging well as he gets stronger with age. He also has an incredibly gifted mind as a passer, seeing things a step before they happen. But to get the most out of these skills, he’s going to have to improve as a shooter and improve his right hand. If that doesn’t happen, NBA defenders won’t worry enough about the final product 15 feet and more away from the hoop, and he won’t be able to use those impressive gathers quite as often. The lack of strength also has a chance to be an issue on defense, where he’s going to struggle to hold his lines and stop ballhandlers from getting where they want to go. If I had faith that Saraf was going to shoot the ball, I would have him much higher than this. But I still have him as a clear first-rounder this year because I think the upside is too interesting to ignore.
Hollinger’s analysis: Nets fans get to see their guy play right away — Saraf is playing in the deciding game of the German League playoffs Thursday afternoon. I’m a fan of the lefty Israeli despite his awkward shot; he’s a tough defender with a nice feel for the game. The Nets might also choose to stash him overseas for another year given all the rookies they will be adding to the roster this season, especially since he’s in a situation where he gets steady playing time in Germany.
27. Brooklyn Nets
Danny Wolf | 6-11 big | 21 years old | Michigan
Vecenie’s ranking: 14
Wolf is one of the most interesting prospects in this draft class given the direction of the modern NBA. The goal in today’s league is to get as much skill and size on the court as possible. Offensively, you want to make the defense cover as much ground as you can. Then on defense, you want to be able to cover as much ground against the offense as possible. Unsurprisingly, the bigger players get, the harder it is to find guys who are skilled enough to allow you to play five-out on offense. Wolf has a standing reach over 9 feet, possesses guard skills and isn’t a total stiff defensively.
And yet, there are significant flaws. His turnover rate is sky high, which tends to be a bad indicator. His needs to iron out inconsistencies in his jumper. Then defensively, he might not be quick enough to guard effectively once he reaches the NBA level, with increased space in driving lanes and a wider court to cover.
Drafting Wolf is a risk. There is a chance that his game just doesn’t quite work out at the next level. But given how hard it is to find skilled players like him, and given their value if their defense ends up being even remotely tenable, I’m probably going to be higher on Wolf than consensus. I believe that NBA teams need a five-out look to win a title in today’s era. Wolf might not be perfect, but the upside of betting on him hitting is worth the gamble. There are some Naz Reid-style outcomes to his game if his development goes right over the next few years.
Hollinger’s analysis: Wolf was the second-to-last player left in the green room, which is always an emotional roller coaster …. especially now that the second round doesn’t start for another 23 hours. He’s a 7-footer but plays more as a perimeter player who handles the ball and initiates; I would compare him to Miami’s Nikola Jovic. Wolf needs to improve his shooting and cut his turnovers to thrive in this role as a pro.
28. Boston Celtics
Hugo Gonzalez | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Real Madrid
Vecenie’s ranking: 24
I want to love Gonzalez. I appreciate the attitude and aggressiveness that he brings to the court. His quick reaction to what’s happening around him is awesome on defense, and I think he can play on that end of the court at an NBA level. Ultimately, it’s going to come down to his shooting. Can Gonzalez turn into an NBA shooter? That’s the swing skill here, as it is for many teenagers as they turn toward the highest level of competition. Given his work ethic and willingness to be coached, you want to buy into it. There’s also just not enough of a track record. I like him as a later first-round pick because if the shooting does come around, he’s almost certain to be useful as a rotational wing. But I don’t know if you can trust him to make shots at any sort of volume from 3, and things just move so fast for him on his drives that I worry about him being a true plus player on that end.
Hollinger’s analysis: Gonzalez theoretically can be stashed overseas, but a Celtics source told me directly that he’s coming over right away. He’ll count $2.3 million on Boston’s payroll, about the same as a veteran minimum contract, so his arrival won’t dramatically impact their cost-cutting program. Gonzalez isn’t good enough yet offensively, but he’s a tough defender and a plus athlete at the wing position with a strong frame. If he can figure out the shooting and become a reliable offensive contributor, he has a chance to help the Celtics after Boston’s “gap year.”
29. Charlotte Hornets (Phoenix)
Liam McNeeley | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Connecticut
Vecenie’s ranking: 20
McNeeley’s season this year is very context-dependent. Not only did he suffer an ankle injury, but he also was asked to do more than he was ready for on the ball. McNeeley’s role in the NBA also won’t be to play on the ball. It’ll be to hit open 3s when they come available, to attack closeouts and make good decisions.He can do that. Defensively, there are questions about his footspeed. He struggled this year to keep up with quicker players. But he is smart and anticipates plays well around the court. He’s not a disastrous team defender who is going to blow up rotations because he isn’t sure where to be. I don’t see him as a plus defender, but there’s a nonzero chance he can get to neutral. I’d love to bet on McNeeley’s becoming a good, rotational floor spacer in the 20s if he lasts that long.
Hollinger’s analysis: The 29th-ranked player on my board goes 29th! This never happens! Charlotte got this pick from Phoenix in the Mark Williams trade that will execute in early July. Between the additions of McNeeley and Kon Knueppel, the Hornets have added a lot of perimeter shooting to space the floor around LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.
30. Los Angeles Clippers
Yanic Konan Niederhauser | 6-11 big | 22 | Penn State
Vecenie’s ranking: 41
Niederhauser is a weird evaluation, because while he just turned 22, he’s still a project in terms of his defensive game. He needs to do a drastically better job using his hands and cutting off angles. He also needs to improve his lines and angles in ball-screen coverage. He’s underdeveloped in his movements. He doesn’t seem lazy on the court or anything like that. He just seems like a player who is still figuring out where exactly he needs to go and how he needs to get there. His tools shine best on offense, where he’s terrific in a role that makes total sense in the modern NBA as a rim-running center who screens, crashes the glass and finishes well at the basket. And while I don’t think he always gets the most out of his athleticism on the court, Niederhauser’s tools are still ridiculous for an NBA big man with how high he can leap for someone with a 9-foot-3 standing reach. Ultimately, the team that drafts him is going to have to be comfortable with a project who could eventually turn into a good backup center.
Hollinger’s analysis: The big winner of the draft combine after being relatively unheralded at Penn State, my Swiss brother Yanic is a shot-blocking, rim-running center who needs to round out his offensive game and perhaps fill out a bit more physically. With the Clippers having an obvious need at backup center, he has a chance to earn minutes relatively quickly despite joining a veteran-laden, “win-now” team.
(Photo: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
