Oklahoma high school infielder Ethan Holliday did not go with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 MLB draft, instead slipping to the fortunate Colorado Rockies at No. 4, but his was the notable name for fantasy baseball managers, and he figures to be first invested in for dynasty formats. Holliday, the son of longtime big leaguer Matt Holliday and brother of Baltimore Orioles 2B Jackson Holliday, is an emerging power hitter, and we couldn’t ask for a better eventual home venue to showcase his talents than the altitude of Denver’s Coors Field.
Then again, the precocious Holliday doesn’t turn 19 until next February, and he is not going to play for the Rockies for years. This isn’t the NFL or NBA, you know. Many (most) fantasy managers are quite impatient and looking for more immediate returns, and there is nothing wrong with that. College products — hitters, really — are inherently safer for projecting future statistical value. This draft, most notable for featuring another Holliday, myriad high school shortstops and left-handed college starting pitchers, was a unique one.
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Both of the Holliday kids should have wonderful careers, but they are different players. Scouts dream of the taller, bulkier Ethan Holliday surpassing 30 home runs in a season with regularity, either from shortstop or third base. Jackson Holliday, top pick from the 2022 draft and currently Baltimore’s leadoff hitter with a .259 batting average, 12 home runs and nine stolen bases, boasts a greater hit tool and more speed. Proud father Matt Holliday hit 316 big league home runs and made three NL All-Star teams with the Rockies. Dynasty investors would love it if Ethan Holliday made similar impact.
How about that first pick?
Eli WIllits could well have a bright baseball future, but it won’t likely matter for fantasy for several years. AP
The Washington Nationals chose a different Oklahoma high school shortstop, switch-hitter Eli Willits, with the No. 1 pick. Willits, son of former Los Angeles Angels OF Reggie Willits, is 17 and a contact-oriented hitter with speed. Perhaps he is a future star as well, more likely than the bigger Ethan Holliday to remain at shortstop. But again, we will not know for years. Most should and will invest in Holliday over Willits in a dynasty/keeper format, counting on Holliday’s bankable power upside, and enviable home ballpark.
Fantasy managers (regardless of the sport) should never assume the real-life order of players selected bears any resemblance to future statistical relevance. Just look at recent quarterback picks in NFL drafts for proof (Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud in 2023, for instance). In baseball, with elongated timelines, there is even less certainty. Other first-round, high school shortstops with bright futures include JoJo Parker, now in the Toronto Blue Jays organization, Steele Hall, now with the Cincinnati Reds, and Chicago White Sox No. 10 pick Billy Carlson. Invest and follow their minor league paths for years.
College lefties on display
Kade Anderson, LSU star and winner of the Most Outstanding Player award at the College World Series, went to the Seattle Mariners at No. 3. Even franchises like the Mariners with seemingly ample starting pitching always yearn for more. Anderson should be a fantasy fixture in a home pitcher’s park for many years. Tennessee LHP Liam Doyle went a few picks later to the St. Louis Cardinals and noted Florida State LHP Jamie Arnold fell to No. 11 to the Athletics. Among the big league lefty comps for these strikeout artists are Max Fried, Chris Sale and Nick Lodolo. Yeah, we would take those numbers in fantasy baseball!
Still, be careful, fantasy managers. While these electric lefties should move quickly through the minor leagues, there is far more certainty with young hitters, not only for performance, but for health. Only one left-handed starting pitcher went among the early picks in 2024, and Arkansas product Hagen Smith (No. 5 to the White Sox) may become a star, but he has dealt with elbow soreness and has thrown only 34 innings for Double-A Birmingham, issuing 24 walks. He seems unlikely to debut in 2025.
First to the major leagues
Myriad players from the 2024 first round have already debuted in the major leagues, as eager organizations are quicker to promote their talents. Cam Smith, picked No. 14 by the Chicago Cubs and shipped to the Houston Astros in the offseason Kyle Tucker trade, has already accumulated 2.2 bWAR. Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz, the No. 4 pick, has hit 17 home runs. No. 2 pick RHP Chase Burns is a Reds rotation fixture. These were college players, one from Florida State and two from Wake Forest.
Aiva Arquette could sail through the minors and arrive in Miami as early as next season. Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images
The first college hitter off the board this weekend was Oregon State SS Aiva Arquette to the Miami Marlins at No. 7. He hits for power and should move quickly through the minors, perhaps debuting in 2026. Fantasy managers should not look too closely at their drafted defensive positions as anything more than a guide. Shortstops move to other spots all the time. Orioles C Ike Irish, pick No. 19 from Auburn, seems unlikely to play there for the stacked Orioles (Adley Rutschman, Sam Basallo), but we may see him in the team’s outfield next summer. The Milwaukee Brewers took Tennessee corner infielder Andrew Fischer. Wherever he plays on the diamond, or if he ends up at DH, he will hit.
Meanwhile, the Angels are perhaps the organization most likely to quickly promote their college draft picks, with 2B Christian Moore, 1B Nolan Schanuel and RHP Ryan Johnson being recent examples. The Angels surprisingly added UC Santa Barbera RHP Tyler Bremner with the No. 2 overall selection. A healthy Bremner probably makes his Angels debut next summer, but fantasy managers should not confuse a quick rise with future fantasy value and upside.
The Philadelphia Phillies chose Arkansas RHP Gage Wood (who famously threw a 119-pitch no-hitter with 19 strikeouts in the recent College World Series) at pick No. 26. Rumors of him instantly joining the club’s underwhelming big-league bullpen run rampant, and perhaps they are true. The Phillies are in “win now” mode, as opposed to the Rockies and White Sox, for example. Even if Wood debuts this summer, it seems unlikely he provides fantasy value. Fight the urge and invest in the high-upside, college lefties in dynasty formats first.
