The U.S. job market was weak in July, and previous months were worse than thought

Despite uncertainty around tariffs in recent months, the U.S. economy had been largely seen as resilient, thanks in large part to jobs reports that appeared to show a strong rate of job creation.

That narrative shifted suddenly on Friday thanks in large part to revisions to the June and May reports. Revisions to jobs reports are not uncommon and are updated to reflect fuller data from state records. But the changes combined with July’s weak report offer a starkly different overall picture of the U.S. economy, which only added 19,000 jobs in May and June, rather than the 291,000 jobs the reports had initially found.

Most of the gains have been in health care — and without those, the last three months of jobs gains would have shown a net job loss in each of the last three months.

Friday’s job report will only increase the already considerable attention on the Federal Reserve and its economy-influencing interest rates.

Earlier this week, the Fed voted to keep interest rates steady, in part due to what Fed Chair Jerome Powell described as a solid jobs market. That pushed the odds of the next rate cut — something intensely desired by Trump — back to at least October.

But following the release of Friday’s jobs report, the odds of a September cut surged from about 40% to 80%.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against other currencies, also plunged more than 1% on the report. A falling dollar makes it more expensive to import goods from overseas and raises the cost to Americans traveling abroad.

Two Trump-appointed members of the rate-setting committee who dissented from the Fed’s decision both released statements Friday before the report’s release flagging the weakening labor market as a reason to cut rates.

Board Governor Christopher Waller said the jobs growth was operating at “near stall speed,” with other data suggested further risks to the labor market had increased.

“With underlying inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate,” he wrote.

Governor Michelle Bowman said the labor market is showing ”increasing signs of fragility,” with job gains “centered in an unusually narrow set of industries that are less affected by the business cycle, including health care and social services.”

Yet there are also signs that the price growth is accelerating, something analysts say puts the Fed, which is charged with keeping both unemployment and inflation low, in an increasingly difficult position.

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