Update (7/2/2025): The analysis below has been updated based CBO’s initial estimate of the Senate-passed bill and JCT’s estimate of the Senate-passed revenue changes.

The Senate passed a reconciliation bill that would add $4.1 trillion to the national debt through Fiscal Year (FY) 2034, $1.1 trillion more than the House-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). We estimate the legislation would add $5.5 trillion to the debt if made permanent and more if various provisions are removed to comply with the Byrd rule.

The below analysis summarizes the fiscal impact of the bill in 14 charts.

1. Senate OBBBA Would Increase Annual Deficits by Over $600 Billion

After 2025 (which is driven by one-time accounting changes), the Senate reconciliation bill would increase deficits every year over the next decade – including by $632 billion in 2027. As written, the annual deficit impact would fall below $400 billion after 2030 – but if temporary measures are made permanent the policies would add more than $700 billion to the deficit by 2034.

2. Senate Bill Would Add $4.1 Trillion to Debt as Written, $5.5 Trillion if Permanent

The Senate bill as written would increase debt by $4.1 trillion through 2034, with more than $3.5 trillion of borrowing from the Finance title (taxes and Medicaid), nearly $300 billion of borrowing from other deficit-increasing titles, about $500 billion of savings from deficit-reducing titles, and nearly $700 billion from interest. If various temporary tax cuts and spending increases were made permanent, the bill would add more than $5.3 trillion to the debt.  

Fiscal Impact of Senate OBBBA

Title Deficit Increase (-) / Decrease

(FY 2025-2034) As Written If Permanent Finance -$3,550 billion -$4,415 billion Armed Services -$150 billion -$431 billion Homeland Security -$129 billion -$214 billion Judiciary -$9 billion -$76 billion Banking $2 billion $2 billion Environment & Public Works $3 billion $3 billion Energy & Natural Resources $27 billion $27 billion Commerce, Science, & Transportation $44 billion $42 billion Agriculture $120 billion $120 billion HELP $278 billion $278 billion Interactions -$3 billion -$3 billion Subtotal, Primary Deficit Impact -$3.4 trillion -$4.7 trillion Interest -$0.7 trillion -$0.8 trillion Total Debt Impact -$4.1 trillion -$5.5 trillion Source: CBO and CRFB estimates.

Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 

3. Debt Could Rise to 130 Percent of GDP

Under the Senate reconciliation bill, debt would rise from 100 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) today to 127 percent by 2034 – compared to 117 percent under current law and 124 percent under the House bill. If the Senate bill is made permanent, debt would reach 130 percent of GDP.

4. The Senate Bill Violates the House Budget Instructions

The House’s budget instructions allow up to $4.5 trillion of net tax cuts contingent on at least $2 trillion of gross spending cuts with a dollar-for-dollar adjustment if the spending cuts fall short. The House-passed OBBBA met these instructions, but the Senate bill would fall roughly $600 billion short – since it only has $1.4 trillion of spending cuts.

5. The Senate Bill Increases Primary Deficits by $3.4 Trillion

The Senate bill includes $4.5 trillion of net tax cuts, $1.4 trillion of gross spending cuts, and $0.3 trillion of gross spending increases through 2034. It would add $3.4 trillion to primary deficits; including interest costs, it would add $4.1 trillion to deficits.

 6. Deficits Would Exceed 7 Percent of GDP under the Senate Bill

Annual deficits would average about 7 percent of GDP per year under the Senate bill, including 7.1 percent in 2027. That’s more than double Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s proposed fiscal target of 3 percent of GDP, almost 2 percent of GDP above current law, and nearly 1 percent of GDP higher than a simple extension of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act’s (TJCA) individual provisions. If made permanent, deficits would rise to roughly 8 percent of GDP by the end of the budget window.

7. Senate Front-Loads Costs, Back-Loads Savings

Largely due to temporary provisions and arbitrary expirations in the Senate bill, costs are heavily front-loaded. Savings are also somewhat back-loaded due to delayed starts, phase-ins, and natural growth over time. Nearly one-quarter of the deficit increase occurs in 2027 alone.

8. Senate OBBBA Claimed Cost Hides Trillions

The Senate is using a “current policy” baseline gimmick to extend the TCJA under reconciliation rules. Specifically, the Senate’s baseline assumes that expiring TCJA provisions are simply extended with no fiscal impact – when in reality those extensions would add trillions to deficits. While CBO originally scored $508 billion of primary deficit decreases relative to a “current policy” baseline, it scored $3.3 trillion of primary deficit increases relative to current law and $110 billion of additional primary deficit increases from changes made immediately prior to passage. And if provisions set to arbitrarily expire under OBBBA are made permanent then the deficit impact would grow further to $4.7 trillion.

9. Either OBBBA Would Add More to Debt Than Recent Laws

Over the past several years, lawmakers have enacted trillions of dollars of deficit increases through different bills (see more in our Debt Thermometer). Either version of the OBBBA would add more to the debt than any of these recent laws. A permanent extension of either OBBBA would add more to the debt than the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, and the CARES Act of 2020 combined.

10. Interest Costs Approach $2 Trillion Under Senate OBBBA

Because the Senate bill would add about $3.4 trillion to primary deficits, it would add more than $700 billion in interest costs over the next decade. If its expiring provisions were made permanent, that total would grow to more than $800 billion of additional interest costs – resulting in interest payments on the debt approaching $2 trillion annually. Interest on the debt is already projected to near $1 trillion under CBO’s baseline this year and near $1.7 trillion by 2034; under a permanent Senate OBBBA, it would eclipse $1.9 trillion in 2034.

11. CEA is $9 Trillion Off on Deficit Claim

The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) has estimated the President’s agenda would reduce deficits by about $5.5 trillion. But this estimate appears to include at least two calculation errors, massively overstates potential growth, fails to account for higher interest rates, relies on spending cuts and regulatory cuts that have not happened (and are not part of OBBBA), and counts on tariffs that have recently been ruled illegal. Adjusting for these issues, we find the full agenda – including macroeconomic effects – would increase deficits by more than $3.5 trillion if OBBBA is made permanent. A $9 trillion swing.

12. Senate OBBBA Would Result In Net Spending Increase If Extended

Through FY 2034 the federal government is projected to spend $86 trillion. The Senate OBBBA would cut that figure by a net $1.1 trillion – from $1.4 trillion of gross spending cuts and $300 billion of gross spending increases – excluding interest. Additional interest costs from the bill’s borrowing would add $700 billion to interest spending, bringing the net spending cut down to closer to $400 billion – just 0.5 percent of projected spending. If various temporary provisions of the bill are extended then total spending would actually increase by almost $200 billion through 2034.

13. Senate OBBBA Would Barely Change Annual Spending 

Annual spending is projected to rise from $6.8 trillion in FY 2024 to $10.3 trillion in 2034 under current law. The Senate-passed OBBBA would barely change that trajectory – while it includes a net $1.1 trillion of primary spending cuts, its interest costs from additional borrowing would result in net spending cuts totaling closer to $400 billion. As a result, spending in 2034 would total $10.2 trillion; if OBBBA’s temporary provisions were made permanent, spending would actually grow above projections in 2034 to $10.4 trillion.

14. Senate-Passed OBBBA Would Add Trillions to Debt

While the House-passed OBBBA would add $2.4 trillion to primary deficits and $3.0 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, we estimate the Senate-passed OBBBA would add $1.1 trillion more — bringing its debt increase to $4.1 trillion. If its temporary provisions were made permanent, we estimate the debt increase would rise to $5.5 trillion.