Vasile’s predictions: Reese struggles to produce in the desert.
Chris Vasile • Publishing Editor
May 27, 2025 • 12:38 ET • 4 min read
The Chicago Sky were always going to be in tough to compete for a playoff spot this year, and through three games, they’ve done little to dispel that notion.
They are 0-3 straight up and against the spread, and a trip to the desert to take on a good Phoenix Mercury side likely won’t end well.
For tonight’s Sky vs. Mercury predictions, I forgo the side and total in favor of a plus-money player prop.
Find out why I’m fading Angel Reese with my best WNBA picks for Tuesday, May 27.
Sky vs Mercury predictions
My Sky vs Mercury best bet: Angel Reese Under 11.5 points (+105 at bet365)
Whether you love her or hate her, there’s no denying Angel Reese is one of the more polarizing women in the WNBA. She’s not afraid to speak her mind on any and every topic, and her “feud” with Caitlin Clark is next-level entertainment.
From a basketball perspective — where the games are won and lost — Reese leaves a lot to be desired in terms of the player she could be.
She’s great at rebounding on both ends of the court. She protects the rim on the defensive end and cleans up on the boards with relative ease. In fact, there may not be a better player in the league at hauling down offensive rebounds, but there’s a reason for that.
Putting her ability to clean up misses from her teammates aside, Reese’s talents as a scorer are limited, which means she cleans up plenty of her own misses.
For someone to play at the rim, and shoot a combined 10/33 through three games this year, with 12, 2, and 13-point performances, is less than ideal for a player who is supposed to lead the team.
Those are just what the numbers say.
Now we add into the mix the opposition — the Phoenix Mercury — and the players who will likely guard her — Alyssa Thomas and/or Satou Sabally — and we have ourselves some value in this prop market.
Both Thomas and Sabally are elite ball players who can score and defend. With Reese’s limited “bag”, I see the Chicago Sky playing around her, instead of through her as they go in search of points to keep this game competitive.
The rebounds may be there for Reese, but the pieces as a scorer won’t be.
Sky vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Angel Reese Under 11.5 pointsMercury team total Over 77.5 points
Mercury -4.5
Sure, Reese has gone over this number in two of the three games, but the shot volume and consistency is something that we can rest our hat on. She’s also poor from the free-throw line, shooting just 6-for-11
We’ll throw in the Mercury -4.5 and their team total Over 77.5 points for good measure.
The Mercury owns the best defensive rating in the WNBA, and their true shooting percentage is 55% through four games. This is a team with plenty of options on the offensive end of the court, and one that should be able to limit a Sky side that’s barely cracking 70ppg.
Sky vs Mercury odds
Sky vs Mercury live odds
Sky vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Chicago +6.5 | Phoenix -6.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +225 | Phoenix -275
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 | Under 157.5
Sky vs Mercury trend
The Mercury are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five vs. the Sky. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Mercury.
How to watch Sky vs Mercury
Location PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ Date Tuesday, 5-27-2025 Tip-off 10:00 p.m. ET TV Arizona’s Family 3TV, Arizona’s Family Sports, The U, WCIU
Sky vs Mercury latest injuries
Sky: None to report.
Mercury: Kahleah Copper (Out), Natasha Mack (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.Not intended for use in MA.
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