In my (very humble) estimation, Sam Darnold was always going to be the prize of free agency in 2025 – and I mean free agency, don’t conflate that with how I regard Myles Garrett, for example.
But that opinion is more a byproduct of how few potentially franchising-changing veterans reach the open market anymore – quarterbacks especially – than a surefire belief that the Super Bowl window is now wide open for the Seattle Seahawks, who, per multiple reports, agreed to a three-year, $100.5 million deal ($55 million guaranteed) with Darnold, who’s coming off the first Pro Bowl nod in his highly uneven seven-year career.
But the move does make for some compelling scrutiny, so let’s not waste any time casting the winners and losers of what’s likely to be the most consequential contract in 2025 among players signing deals with new teams:
WINNERS
Sam Darnold
The Seahawks become his fifth employer since the New York Jets traded up to make him the third overall pick of the 2018 NFL draft – but Seattle very much seems like his first bona fide opportunity to be the face of a franchise since the NYJ utterly failed to surround Darnold with even a below-average supporting cast. A three-year commitment is hardly a lifetime contract – especially as “commitments” go in this league – and certainly doesn’t preclude GM John Schneider from investing a high-end draft pick in a developmental quarterback now that he’s amassed five of the top 92 after agreeing to trade QB Geno Smith and WR DK Metcalf in recent days.
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But this seems like something close to an optimal situation for Darnold, who reunites with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak after both spent 2023 with the San Francisco 49ers – Kubiak as the passing game coordinator and Darnold as Brock Purdy’s backup, though he had a busy offseason that year as Purdy recovered from elbow surgery. Seattle also isn’t a locale where Darnold will have to consistently affirm his value in front of a harsh media spotlight like New York’s, and he should enjoy a steadily bolstered supporting cast – like better blockers to safeguard his occasionally happy feet – given the way Schneider is stockpiling draft resources while paying well below top dollar for his new QB1.
J.J. McCarthy
The Minnesota Vikings’ first-round pick in 2024 now has a clear pathway to the job that he might have nailed down last season had he not suffered a season-ending meniscus tear during what was an otherwise scintillating preseason debut in August. All indications are that McCarthy will be ready to take the reins this spring, even if the Vikes sign another Darnold-adjacent insurance plan like, say, Daniel Jones.
Mike Macdonald
The 37-year-old was the NFL’s youngest head coach in 2024 after the Seahawks hired him to replace Pete Carroll, the greatest to ever hold the post in the Pacific Northwest. But even while going 10-7 and missing the playoffs (and the NFC West crown) by virtue of being on the wrong side of the tiebreaker formula, it often seemed like Macdonald was coaching Carroll’s (and Schneider’s) team rather than his own.
But Darnold feels like the exclamation point of an overhaul that saw Smith, Metcalf, (probably) WR Tyler Lockett and several others get one-way tickets out of town as Macdonald and Schneider reimagine a flawed roster that had been geared toward the pass into something more in line with something Macdonald saw work when he was on the Baltimore Ravens’ staff – namely a heavy emphasis on defense and running the ball. And if Darnold spends more time handing off and nursing leads – and maybe throwing the ball closer to 25 times per game than even the 32 he averaged in Minnesota in 2024 – then no one here should be gassing up on Starbucks at midnight in a bid to keep this team on track in what’s shaping up as a rough-and-tumble NFC West.
LOSERS
Sam Darnold
Aside from a negligible decimal point, the biggest payday of his NFL career basically mirrors the three-year, $100 million one 2018 draftmate and former Carolina Panthers teammate Baker Mayfield extracted from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers … last year. The fact that Darnold didn’t elevate into the $40 million bracket of the QB pay scale – which seems eminently reasonable for a 27-year-old Pro Bowl passer theoretically entering his prime – is pretty indicative that the league was still pretty leery of a guy whose bad habits (read: ball security) undermined his obvious potential while with the underpowered Jets and Panthers … and, to a degree, in the Vikings’ pair of season-ending losses in 2024 following their highly unexpected 14-2 start with him in the saddle. Darnold got his bag Monday. But job security? Not so much.
Justin Jefferson
The man is an absolute football freak, so the “loser” label is completely relative to his new circumstances. But with McCarthy apparently about to settle in as the Vikings’ newest starter, “Jets” will be adapting to his third starting quarterback in three seasons after Darnold wound up replacing Kirk Cousins. Jefferson performed (again) at an All-Pro level in 2024, however his 90.2 receiving yards per game were his lowest output since his rookie season in 2020 – well off his production level with Cousins and occasionally leaving him visibly frustrated. That could easily recur in 2025 as Jefferson tries to find a groove with McCarthy in what will effectively be the rookie year for the Michigan product, who may also have to get acclimated to being the offensive centerpiece he never had to be during two years as the Wolverines’ starter.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The emergent talent is not on Jefferson’s level but – again – the “loser” label is (also) completely relative to his new circumstances. Like Darnold, JSN broke though for his first Pro Bowl nod in 2024 after the first-rounder had a middling debut as a rookie in 2023. But given the way this offense already seems to be evolving – which is likely with a much heavier emphasis on the run under Kubiak as Metcalf and Lockett move on – Smith-Njigba, who tied the single-season Seahawks record in 2024 with 100 receptions, may see his production suffer as he faces more double teams and/or better cornerbacks at a time when he’s trying to establish chemistry and timing with Darnold.
Pittsburgh Steelers
For a minute, it appeared as if a team with one quarterback on its roster – Skylar Thompson – was positioning itself for something more than a stopgap solution behind center after agreeing to pay a second-rounder for Metcalf on Sunday night. But the Steelers didn’t get Darnold. They didn’t even manage to re-sign Justin Fields. So it’s either back to the draft drawing board, back to Metcalf’s buddy Russell Wilson, on to Aaron Rodgers … or some other alternative that doesn’t seem likely to fix the festering problem that’s relegated a regular playoff entry under Mike Tomlin as nothing more than a one-and-done non-contender for the better part of a decade.
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