Phillies vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 5

Data Skrive

Nick Lodolo will be starting for the Cincinnati Reds when they take on Kyle Schwarber and the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Phillies are the favorite in this one, at -180, while the underdog Reds have +152 odds to play spoiler. Philadelphia is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The contest’s total is set at 8.5 runs.

Check out everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Reds game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Phillies vs. Reds Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, July 5, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
How to watch on TV: NBCS-PH and FDSOH

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Run Line Favorite Run Line Odds Underdog Run Line Odds Phillies -180 +152 8.5 -122 +100 -1.5 +112 -134

Phillies vs. Reds Prediction

Score Prediction: Phillies 4, Reds 3
Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Phillies 55%, Reds 45%

Phillies vs. Reds Betting Insights

This season, the Phillies have been favored 67 times and won 44, or 65.7%, of those games.
Philadelphia has a record of 20-3 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -180 on the moneyline.
The implied probability of a win from the Phillies, based on the moneyline, is 64.3%.
The Reds have come away with 26 wins in the 49 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
Cincinnati has a mark of 3-5 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +152 or worse on the moneyline.
The Reds have an implied victory probability of 39.7% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

The Phillies went 3-1 across the four games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 outings, the Phillies and their opponents combined to go over the run total two times (all 10 games had set totals).
The Phillies’ ATS record is 7-3-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Stat Avg/Total Record 5-5 Runs Per Game 3.7 HR 11 ERA 1.99 K/9 9.7

Phillies Player Insights

Schwarber paces the Phillies in home runs (26) and runs batted in (58).
Schwarber’s home runs rank him fifth in the majors, and he ranks 12th in RBI.
Trea Turner is hitting .297 to pace his team.
Turner ranks 78th in homers and 83rd in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
Turner heads into this matchup looking for his fourth game in a row with a hit. During his last five outings he is batting .211 with two walks and two RBIs.
Nick Castellanos has 22 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 20 walks while hitting .279.
Alec Bohm is batting .283 with 12 doubles, two triples, seven home runs and 18 walks.
Bohm is riding a five-game hitting streak into this one. In his last five games he is hitting .333 with a double, a triple, two walks and two RBIs.

Reds Recent Betting Performance

The Reds have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Reds and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times.
The Reds have six wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Reds Recent Stats

Stat Avg/Total Record 6-4 Runs Per Game 4.8 HR 9 ERA 4.10 K/9 8.0

Reds Player Insights

Elly De La Cruz has put up a team-high 18 home runs and has driven in 58 runs.
De La Cruz’s home run total places him 18th in the majors, and he is 12th in RBI.
TJ Friedl is hitting .281 to lead the lineup.
Friedl ranks 137th in homers and 135th in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
Spencer Steer is hitting .252 with 13 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 21 walks.
Gavin Lux is batting .269 with 16 doubles, a triple, four home runs and 36 walks.