The New York Yankees (48-36) and Toronto Blue Jays (46-38) meet Tuesday as they continue their 4-game AL East tussle north of the border. The first pitch from Rogers Centre is slated for 3:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 2-2
New York, which dropped Monday’s series opener 5-4, has scuffled away from home of late. Since June 13, the Yankees have gone just 1-6 on the road.
The Blue Jays are 4-1 across their last 5 games. The club had a big June and is 20-10 since May 28.
Yankees at Blue Jays projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Kevin Gausman
Expert MLB daily picks: Unique MLB betting insights only at USA TODAY
Fried (10-2, 1.92 ERA) is making his 18th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 108 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 7-1 win at Cincinnati Reds Wednesday
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (6 IP, 0 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 1 start
- Logged 34 K against just 5 BB while clocking a 1.91 ERA in June
Gausman (6-6, 4.21 ERA) is making his 17th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 94 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-0 win at Cleveland Guardians Thursday
- Career vs. Yankees: 10-10, 3.88 ERA (176 1/3 IP, 76 ER), 175 H, 61 BB, 173 K in 36 games (30 starts)
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Yankees at Blue Jays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Blue Jays +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (-102) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-118)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Yankees at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 6, Yankees 4
Moneyline
Fried is making his second straight start on the road and his fourth away from Yankee Stadium in his last 5 outings. Toronto owns an .893 OPS over its last 14 at home, and the Blue Jays are at their best against left-handers.
With New York struggling on the road recently, Toronto is a slight lean here. Consider a partial-unit play on the BLUE JAYS (+140).
Run line/Against the spread
No interest. PASS.
Over/Under
The Over is 10-3 across the last 13 Yankees-Blue Jays meetings. And the Over is 5-2 in Toronto’s last 7 games.
Fried has been spectacular, but he has been helped by some generous rates around the margins. New York batters have good numbers against Gausman — their aggregate .814 OPS against the veteran righty (per ESPN) is more telling than his career ERA vs. New York. For veteran hurlers, that career ERA vs. a franchise is often a borderline silly stat to use in betting prep.
The Blue Jay bullpen likely is not in full-availability mode after last night’s 5-4 affair.
The price on this play has gotten more attractive during the night. BET THE OVER 9 (-105).
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