LONDON, July 31 (Reuters) – What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan
, opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
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Blowout results from megacaps Microsoft and Meta catapulted U.S. stock futures up more than 1% on Thursday, while an overnight dollar surge on hawkish noises from the Federal Reserve cooled a touch as the Bank of Japan gave similar signals today.
The week’s blizzard of economic data and corporate earnings, trade deadlines and central bank decisions have helped Wall Street stocks and the dollar build a head of steam, with the greenback (.DXY)
, opens new tab hitting two-month highs on Wednesday as Fed easing expectations retreated sharply. The dollar is now on course for its best week in almost three years.
I’ll provide a rundown of the rest of today’s market news and then discuss how the current trajectory of the trade war could potentially depress goods price inflation in Europe, re-igniting calls for more monetary easing.
* In the face of above-forecast U.S. GDP, inflation and payroll readings, the Fed on Wednesday signalled it was in no rush to cut rates again despite intense political pressure, knocking year-end easing bets back 10 basis points to just 35 bps. Futures now only see a 50-50 chance of a rate cut in September. June U.S. inflation updates are due later today, with July’s employment report out Friday. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan nudged up its inflation and GDP forecasts, increasing expectations for another rate rise there this year, which bolstered the yen.
* Microsoft and Meta delivered big earnings beats after Wednesday’s bell, causing their share prices to soar 9% and 12%, respectively, after hours, as investors welcomed news of artificial intelligence spending and cloud revenue. Microsoft is now on track to see its valuation eclipse $4 trillion. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both climbed more than 1% before today’s open. European and Japanese stocks also advanced, while China’s bourses bucked the trend on disappointing business surveys and trade tensions.
* As Friday’s U.S. tariff deadline nears, President Donald Trump said the U.S. will charge a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea, down from a threatened 25% and similar to deals for Japan and Europe. Canada and Mexico have yet to agree to separate deals, India faces 25% tariffs, and Brazil is still saddled with 50%. China’s temporary pact with America was rolled over, but it too faces higher U.S. tariffs than Europe or Japan. But Trump also sent copper prices down almost 20% after saying 50% tariffs on imports of copper pipes and wiring would kick in on Friday, short of the sweeping restrictions expected and with several exemptions.
Today’s Market Minute
* President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the U.S. will charge a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea, down from a threatened 25%, as part of a deal that eases tensions with a top-10 trading partner and key Asian ally.
* U.S. President Donald Trump intensified his trade war with Canada a day ahead of his August 1 deadline for a tariff agreement, saying it would be “very hard” to make a deal with Canada after it gave its support to Palestinian statehood.
* The Bank of Japan revised up its inflation forecasts on Thursday and offered a less gloomy outlook on the economy than three months ago, keeping alive the possibility of a resumption in interest rate hikes this year.
* The European Union’s lavish pledge to buy $750 billion of U.S. energy by 2028 risks exacerbating the bloc’s already outsized dependence on American gas, just as it finds itself increasingly reliant on Chinese technology to power its energy transition. Read the latest from ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.
* Trump has tempered his most belligerent trade threats and begun striking deals with major partners, meaning most countries won’t face the punishing tariffs announced on ‘Liberation Day’, but ROI columnist Jamie McGeever writes that there is one major exception: Brazil.
Chart of the day
Cloud revenue growth expected to pick up pace on strong AI demand
Big Tech is spending more than ever on artificial intelligence – but the returns are rising too, and investors are buying in. AI played a bigger role in driving demand across internet search, digital advertising and cloud computing in the April-June quarter, powering revenue growth at technology giants Microsoft (MSFT.O)
, opens new tab, Meta (META.O)
, opens new tab and Alphabet (GOOGL.O)
, opens new tab. The upbeat commentary also bodes well for Amazon (AMZN.O)
, opens new tab, the largest U.S. cloud provider, which reports earnings after Thursday’s market close.
Today’s events to watch
* U.S. June personal consumption expenditures inflation gauge (8:30 AM EDT), weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EDT) U.S. Q2 employment costs (8:30 AM EDT), Chicago July business survey (9:45 AM EDT); Canada May GDP (8:30 AM EDT)
* U.S. corporate earnings: Apple, Amazon, Ameren, AbbVie, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eastman Chemical, Clorox, CVS, Comcast, Resmed, Cigna, Edison, Stryker, Mastercard, Intercontinental Exchange, Coinbase, S&P Global, Southern, Howmet, Masco, First Solar, Eversource, Ingersoll Rand, PG&E, PPL, Xcel Energy, Baxter, Mettler-Toledo, Wills Towers Watson, International Paper, AMETEK, Kimco, CMS
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles
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by Mike Dolan; editing by Philippa Fletcher
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Mike Dolan is Reuters Editor-at-Large for Finance & Markets and a regular columnist. He has worked as a correspondent, editor and columnist at Reuters for the past 30 years – specializing in global economics and policy and financial markets across G7 and emerging economies. Mike is based in London but has also worked in Washington DC and in Sarajevo and has covered news events from dozens of cities across the world. A graduate in economics and politics from Trinity College Dublin, Mike previously worked with Bloomberg and Euromoney and received Reuters awards for his work during the financial crisis in 2007/2008 and on Frontier Markets in 2010.
