One of the things I love about the fair odds exercise is it eliminates the need to say “so and so has no shot.” Every horse has some shot, it’s just that for some horses, their shot is never going to be worth a bet.

So it goes in the Kentucky Derby, which routinely features 20 horses with a favorite typically no less than 2-1 and long shots rarely beyond the 50-1 range. Funny enough, the two longest shots in the race over the last ten years, Instilled Regard in 2018 and Rich Strike in 2022, both hit the superfecta. The former finished fourth to Justify. The latter won.

I do not expect any horse this year to be 80-1 as those two were. That means several underlays on the less likely end with me giving Owen Almighty, Flying Mohawk and Neoequos the least likely chances of winning.

The biggest underlay, though, is likely to be Sandman, who I give a 14-1 chance to but whose odds will be anywhere from 5-1 to 8-1. Obviously I’d love to be 14-1 to win the Derby. Heck, I’d love to be 100-1 to win the Derby. But from a wagering standpoint I just think his celebrity off a perfect trip last prep is being overbought by the public. Ditto for the horses behind him that day, maiden Publisher and feel-good story Coal Battle.

The best value looks to be in that second tier of wagering with, but not including, Sandman. Sovereignty and Rodriguez both have fair odds less than my projected off odds, which makes them key plays. 

One thing important to keep in mind is these are odds related to the horse winning the race, not running well enough to be a part of exotic wagers. Chunk of Gold as a for instance may be overbet in the win pool, but is a key player for me to crash the trifecta party at the expense of shorter-priced horses.

The post position draw is Saturday night at Churchill Downs, and that will be the final piece of the puzzle, assuming that no scratches happen. Render Judgment is No. 21 and would be the first horse in with a scratch. At the time the above graphic was made there were plans not to enter, though owners reportedly changed their mind. The fair odds and projected morning-line odds are only based on the 20 expected in the gate, though.