If your initial reaction to the Mets’ trade of three young players for reliever Tyler Rogers was along the lines of “wait, what the [bleep]? Is this real?” you weren’t alone. That was the first blush industry response, too.
But maybe that response was in part a result of the prospect hugging that has become standard in that industry. It’s an approach in which young players receive years of hype that often end in so-so MLB careers.
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Do you want the Mets to be all-in at the trade deadline? For them to take a risk and try to win the 2025 World Series? Well, this is what all-in looks like: Rogers from the Giants for Blade Tidwell, Drew Gilbert, and Jose Butto. A gulp and two sets of fingers crossed that the deal doesn’t burn you.
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns’ success has earned him this: our second thought about the trade, after “what the [bleep]?” should be, “I’m sure there is a rationale, because he knows what he’s doing.”
Stearns was not available to comment on a trade that was still in medical review, but conversations with league sources with direct knowledge of the Mets’ thinking helped us to understand the rationale.
First, Rogers is an elite reliever. The Mets began the trade deadline season lacking a championship-caliber bullpen, and have now added Rogers and a lefty, Gregory Soto (and are still looking for arms before Thursday’s 6:00 pm deadline). Relievers cost a ton this year, and the Mets absolutely needed at least two.
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Second, the Mets were dealing from positions of depth.
It would be reasonable for evaluators to rank Gilbert behind outfield prospects Jett Williams and Carson Benge on a depth chart.
It would also be reasonable to rank Tidwell behind Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat. Trading Tidwell does hurt; he might become an impact reliever or solid starter. Butto has not been particularly impactful this year, and Rogers likely will be.
So, if in a world without the Rogers trade, Butto is gone in two years, Tidwell is a reliever, and Gilbert is a fourth outfielder, wouldn’t you have wished the Mets had traded their prospects before the bloom came off? Isn’t this what the Yankees take criticism for in the cases of Clint Frazier and Oswald Peraza?
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There is risk here, of course. Maybe one of the traded players ends up outperforming projections. The Mets are well aware that they gave up a lot for Rogers.
But a team can’t avoid making trades for fear of losing the next Pete Crow-Armstrong (and, by the way, Sandy Alderson and Zack Scott were right to trade for Javy Baez in 2021). Oftentimes, you’re merely dealing away the next Jarred Kelenic.
The Mets believe that this is their year or two to go all-in and chase a championship. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo are in their thirties. Juan Soto is in the sweet spot of his prime.
Labor unrest might spoil the 2027 season, and when the sport returns, it might well have new rules that limit Steve Cohen’s ability to use his financial advantage.
Sometimes when you shoot for a World Series and don’t make it, you get burned. See Crow-Armstrong.
But what’s the cliche about missing 100 percent of the shots you don’t take?
