The Edmonton Oilers are down 2-0 in the team’s best-of-seven series against the Los Angeles Kings. The math people are flummoxed, and the eye test evaluators look toward Game 3 of the series with dread. It’s bad. Real bad. What can coach Kris Knoblauch do in order to win the pivotal next game, and the series? There may be some answers in the matchups.
Facts
The Oilers are 7-7 goals at even strength, and the Kings are enjoying a five-on-five edge (7-5 goals). Special teams is a disaster, with Los Angeles scoring four goals with the man advantage and allowing zero goals on the penalty kill.
There’s one piece of good news. When Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are on the ice together at five-on-five, the Oilers are scoring 9.45 goals per 60. It has resulted in just a 3-2 edge over 19 minutes, but it’s a positive.
That’s it. The math on this series is ghastly for Edmonton.
McDavid matchups
Knoblauch loaded up the top line with the captain and Draisaitl later in Game 1, and played the two men heavily in the second game. As successful as these two players are at five-on-five together (it’s basically a power play at five-on-five), it leaves the rest of Edmonton’s roster barren.
Knoblauch often runs his bench with the idea of deploying McDavid and Draisaitl (together or apart) generously and letting the opposition coach try to line match.
In the first two games this season in Los Angeles, McDavid saw a steady diet of Drew Doughty (30:07) and Mikey Anderson (21:07) at five-on-five; centre Phillip Danault (18:34) and his line got the head-to-head assignment against Edmonton’s top line.
In the first away game in the 2024 playoffs against the Kings, McDavid’s most common five-on-five opponents were Danault (7:07, 6-3 shots and 1-0 goals Edmonton) and the defensive pairing of Vladislav Gavrikov and Matt Roy. Against Danault, McDavid’s line scored a goal and had an expected goal share of 83 percent. The Kings changed up for the second game. Anze Kopitar played 11 minutes against the top line, with the pairing of Doughty and Anderson joining him. There were no goals for either side in the clash, but the Kings outshot the Oilers 7-0, and McDavid’s expected goal share was just 16 percent.
Line matching can tilt the ice in the home team’s favour. The Oilers may have to hard-match at home in Games 3 and 4.
Looking at last spring’s first two home games may not help. McDavid faced the following players most often (five-on-five) during the first two games in Edmonton: Gavrikov (20:19 two-game total) and Roy (18:43) with Danault (14:06). McDavid played the pairing at 1-1 goals, but found a way to outscore Danault 3-1 in the first two home games.
Given full leash, Jim Hiller will probably run Danault and the Doughty-Anderson pairing against McDavid. Knoblauch needs to use home ice to his advantage.
What’s the problem?
Edmonton’s most successful deployment since Knoblauch took over is a five-man unit that places McDavid’s line with Evan Bouchard’s pairing. It’s basically magic.
In last year’s playoffs (25 games), the McDavid line combined with the Bouchard pairing outscored opponents 23-8 (74 percent) at five-on-five in 347 minutes. That kind of high-octane performance (3.98 GF-60 for the line) turned a five-on-five shift into a power play.
During the 2024-25 regular season, during periods when the captain, Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm and others struggled and or were injured, McDavid-Bouchard still delivered (45-28 goals, 62 percent). The GF-60 was 3.27 per 60, down from the playoffs in 2024 but still a substantial total and a massive outscoring advantage at five-on-five.
In the first two games of this year’s playoffs, McDavid-Draisaitl (in 21 minutes) are 2-4 goals (33 percent) despite a 65 percent expected goal share.
The magic wand is broken.
What’s the plan?
The first order of business is to fix the defensive pairings. Bouchard and Darnell Nurse didn’t work well together in Los Angeles. Nurse is often viewed as a shutdown type, but he brings too much chaos to be considered a direct comp to the injured Ekholm.
A much better fit is Jake Walman. He has been out for a time but is healthy now. In limited time together during the regular season (122 minutes five-on-five), the duo has a 56 percent goal share. The tandem has been successful in the postseason in very little playing time.
If McDavid’s line (without Draisaitl) can work with Walman and Bouchard to create five-on-five magic, the Kings become a far less threatening team. It also (should) open up opportunities for the second line, centred by Draisaitl. If the Oilers can use Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson on the second line, the “promised land’ of three scoring lines (fans have been pursuing the idea since McDavid was drafted) comes into view.
Why? A third line that features Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and one of Corey Perry or Evander Kane could trash the opposition’s depth lines and pairings senseless.
Bottom line
Since McDavid arrived (with Draisaitl already in the system and developing) in 2015, the Oilers have been riding the wave of elite brilliance provided by the world’s best player. This season might be the first one since he arrived that it is imperative the organization diversifies the offence. It was a good idea in 2015; it’s central to success now.
The talent is available. It’s not perfect. There are flaws in using players like Connor Brown and Jeff Skinner on the No. 1 line. They delivered late in the regular season on the McDavid line, though. In just 51 minutes (a small sample), the trio scored four goals without allowing one and delivered 71 percent expected goals at five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick.
Knoblauch needs an answer.
The options include finding a McDavid-Bouchard magic five-on-five solution from the assorted talents available. If the team can win enough games to get to Ekholm (who is unavailable for the first round), then a return to the ridiculous outscoring may appear.
Another option has the coaching staff running three lines (as described above) heavily in an effort to get an early lead and force the Kings to play a less structured game.
The final option is uncovering a forward line (probably Nugent-Hopkins with Adam Henrique and Connor Brown) that can check the Kopitar line (with Adrian Kempe and Andrei Kozmenko) at bay. A pairing with speed and smarts (Nurse with Troy Stecher would be an option if Stecher were available).
If that works, the only real worry is Quinton Byfield running over everyone and taking over the series.
The early matchup trends in Los Angeles brought dire results for the Oilers. Game 3 is going to be a monster. The coaching staff is running out of time.
(Photo of Drew Doughty and Connor McDavid: Jayne Kamin / Oncea-Imagn Images)
