NASCAR is at Iowa Speedway this weekend for 350 laps at the fastest short track in the world.
Iowa Speedway is a 0.875-mile long oval and was partially repaved on the lower lines in the turns prior to last year’s race. That means getting into and off the turns is sketchy on the old surface, while the turns suddenly grip up if you’re on the bottom half of the track in the middle of the turns.
That led to a big accident for Kyle Busch in practice, as well as a few other notable incidents of drivers getting squirrely, which should make for an interesting race.
With 350 laps scheduled, we’ll definitely need 2-3 dominators, and with the potential for some incidents, I wouldn’t be surprised if things get a little mixed up in the running order, meaning there’s probably some extra value in contrarian plays.
Thankfully, my practice FLAGS data will help us sort it all out.
In addition, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Iowa Corn 350 at Iowa Speedway.
Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.
Kyle Larson ($10,500): Larson was the clear No. 1 car in practice FLAGS data, and he was incredibly strong on the long run.
He was also arguably the fastest driver in this race last year. I’ll gladly take him at the third-highest price point, as he starts close enough to the front to feel good about his dominator chances.
Ross Chastain ($8500): We’re getting a small discount on Chastain, who’s been in the upper $8k to lower $9k range for most of the ovals this year.
Chastain was the fastest car in raw speed in the first practice group, and that translated to FLAGS as well, where he topped the group and was ninth overall in group-adjusted FLAGS.
Chastain hasn’t been a great qualifier, and that happened again as he’ll start 28th, but that just means plenty of place differential is possible for the watermelon man.
Kyle Busch ($8200): Rowdy was the driver who had the big incident in practice, meaning he’ll go to a backup car and start dead last in 39th.
That only means he can move forward.
He’s as safe as they come, but the upside could be limited if he struggles with the backup car. That said, I don’t think he will. His primary was solid, as one of the best in the first practice group in FLAGS and mid pack in group-adjusted FLAGS.
Denny Hamlin ($11,000): I think some people will be scared away from Hamlin, given he brushed the wall in practice, but it was a minor brush and he was able to qualify 11th, which, ironically is the starting spot that has the best average finish at tracks less than one mile in length in the Next Gen era.
Hamlin was also fourth in group-adjusted FLAGS, which means he’ll likely have one of the best cars if you know anything about him, as Hamlin is notorious for being faster in the race than he is in practice.
With 350 laps on deck, we can afford both Larson and Hamlin by finding cheap upside elsewhere.
Bubba Wallace and/or Alex Bowman ($7200, $7100): These two drivers make up the eighth row, with Wallace starting 15th and Bowman starting 16th, and they are just $100 apart in salary.
It’s likely at least one of these two ends up in the optimal lineup, and I have both drivers projected for sub-20 ownership.
A lot of that is thanks to Ryan Preece, who is $7000, starts 33rd, and came into the week as one of the drivers to keep an eye on thanks to the shorter, flatter tracks being his best track type. But Preece was awful in practice, and there’s a strong chance he gets lapped early being so slow and starting so far back.
That opens up other drivers to shine in this price range, and both Wallace and Bowman had strong practice cars, placing eighth and fifth respectively in practice FLAGS.
One of A.J. Allmendinger, Justin Haley, or Michael McDowell: These three drivers start between ninth and 13th, which would ordinarily make them tough DFS plays, but at a short track like Iowa, that track position could be key to staying on the lead lap while other cheaper cars starting farther back get lapped.
Add in the potential for some chaos, as several drivers had big moments in practice, and there’s certainly a world in which at least one of these drivers ends up optimal just by finishing near or ahead of where they started.
Allmendinger had the best FLAGS, but he starts the farthest forward, while McDowell had the worst but gets more safety by starting the farthest back of the trio.
All told, I project each to be under-rostered, with a combined 27.2% optimal chance compared to 16.7% projected ownership.
This is the cheap upside I was talking about when I said we could afford both Hamlin and Larson, since Allmendinger is $6600, McDowell $6000, and Haley $5300.
Pictured: Chase Briscoe
Photo credit: Stan Szeto, Imagn
