USATSI
Out with the old, and in with the … old? The Rams are replacing Cooper Kupp with Davante Adams, who agreed to a two-year, $46 million deal Sunday with $26 million guaranteed.
Kupp, who turns 32 in June, is still with the Rams at the time of publication, but the Rams have given him permission to seek a trade. He’s not expected to return to Los Angeles. In comes Adams, who turns 33 in December.
He’ll be the running mate to Puca Nacua, and Adams is a great addition for Matthew Stafford. But Fantasy managers shouldn’t overvalue Adams with this move to the Rams.
He should be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver at best, and the earliest he should be drafted is Round 5. The offense for the Rams, with Sean McVay and Stafford, is a great marriage. But Adams is at the point in his career when receivers start to decline, and we have to see how he’ll perform without Aaron Rodgers.
Last season, after joining the Jets via trade from the Raiders, Adams looked like a star again. He closed the year with at least 17.6 PPR points in five of his final six outings, including three games with at least 20.8 PPR points over that span. Rodgers was leaning on Adams a lot with at least 11 targets in five of those games, and those two had an amazing rapport.
But prior to joining the Jets, Adams averaged 14.9 PPR points per game in three games with the Raiders. That would make him good, not great, and that might be the expectation with the Rams.
Now, Stafford is clearly an upgrade over what Adams had in Las Vegas with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. And Stafford is probably better than Rodgers at this stage of their careers. But is Stafford better for Adams is what we’re looking at here.
Adams, even at his age, is a standout route runner. And McVay will certainly put him in position to be open, much like what has happened with Nacua and Kupp.
But as we saw last season, Kupp became a non-factor for the Rams down the stretch while Nacua dominated targets. In Kupp’s final seven games, including the playoffs, Kupp had 31 targets for 18 catches, 252 yards and one touchdown. He had more than 12 PPR points just once over that span, which was Week 14 against Buffalo.
I don’t expect Adams to perform that poorly, but a decline in production is on the horizon based on the history of receivers at his age. Prior to last season, there were only 30 times in NFL history in which a receiver at least 32 years old ranked in the top 50 at the position in PPR.
Only three of those receivers put up top-10 stats, and only four more finished in the top 20. Last season, Adams finished No. 12 in total PPR points, while Keenan Allen (32) was No. 34 and DeAndre Hopkins (32) was No. 48.
Can Adams stay on that list again in 2025 with a new team? I would hope he can finish in the top 50, but I don’t think another top-20 finish is likely. I probably won’t be drafting much of Adams this season in my Fantasy leagues if he’s selected in the first five rounds.
As for Stafford, this signing is a boost to his Fantasy value. We didn’t know how the Rams would replace Kupp, and Adams is a solid replacement to pair with Nacua.
The Rams also re-signed Tutu Atwell, who is likely the No. 3 receiver, and they have Jordan Whittington for depth. Tyler Higbee at tight end and Kyren Williams at running back make this an excellent group for Stafford, and the Rams might not be done adding weapons.
That said, Stafford is just a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback, and he likely won’t get drafted in most one-quarterback leagues. In Superflex and two-quarterback leagues, Stafford will be a mid-round pick.
Last season, when Nacua and Kupp returned from injury in Week 8, Stafford scored at least 19.6 Fantasy points in eight of 12 games, including the playoffs. He averaged 19.8 Fantasy points per game over that span, and hopefully he can do better with Adams now on the roster.
I still view Nacua as the best receiver for the Rams, and I’ll still draft him in Round 1. After his breakout rookie season in 2023 when he averaged 17.6 PPR points per game, he increased that total to 18.8 in 2024.
While he missed five games with a knee injury early in the season after getting hurt in Week 1, he scored at least 18.1 PPR points in six of his final 12 games, including the playoffs, and he averaged 11.2 targets per game over his final 10 outings.
Stafford should continue to lean on Nacua more than Adams, and I don’t expect Nacua to suffer with Adams now on the Rams. Hopefully, the two can work together like Nacua and Kupp did, but Nacua is in his prime, while Adams is likely on the decline.
