This is the opener of a three-game series in Philadelphia between the Phillies and visiting Cincinnati Reds.
Andrew Abbott is scheduled to pitch for the Cincinnati while Jesus Luzardo should get the nod for Philadelphia.
Andrew Abbott has been really good this season, posting a 1.79 ERA. The swinging strike rate is 11% while the average exit velocity is 88 mph with a 32.6% hard hit rate. The K-BB% is 16.9%. He’s also only allowed nine home runs in 80.1 innings. He’s been fortunate, though, as the BABIP is only .241 while the strand rate is 88.1%. As a result, the FIP is much higher at 3.51.
He’s been split neutral with the only caveat being that seven of the nine home runs allowed have come off the bat of righties. Abbott has been much better on the road, though, as the K-BB% is 22.1% vs. 12.8%, while the FIP is 2.35 on the road and 4.56 at home.
Abbott has allowed over three earned runs two times: four earned runs in Colorado and five earned runs against the Brewers five starts ago. In the other 12 starts, Abbott has allowed one or fewer earned runs in all. This will be the first time facing the Phillies this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Phillies have struck out at the 20th-highest rate while having the 12th-best ISO. The wOBA is eighth-best in MLB.
Jesus Luzardo has bounced back from an injury-ravaged 2024 in fine fashion. The strikeout rate is back up to 27.2% after being 21.2% last season. The K-BB% is a healthy 19.4%. The big thing is the seven home runs allowed in 95.1 innings. The 0.66 HR/9 is a career-low. Luzardo is averaging 96.4 mph on the fastball. The ERA is 4.06, but he’s been unlucky with a .370 BABIP and the FIP is much lower at 2.75.
Luzardo has been slightly better at home. He’s been almost untouchable against lefties. The K-BB% is 38.4% while the FIP is a laughable 0.31. Righties have hit all seven home runs off him.
Luzardo has allowed over three earned runs four times this season. There was that two-game stretch in which he allowed 12 and eight earned runs in 3.1 and 2.1 innings. There was talk of tipping pitches, but that seems to have been resolved now. This will be the first time facing the Reds this season.
The Reds have struck out at the 14th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while being 15th in ISO. The wOBA is 22nd-best.
As for bullpens, Cincinnati has the 25th-lowest FIP while Philadelphia has the 23rd-lowest.
Two lefties on the mound. I’m not expecting Sandy Koufax vs. Randy Johnson on Friday, but I do like both pitchers to neutralize the opposing offenses. The bullpens are the wild card, as both are bad and can give up runs in bunches. That said, I’m going to favor a pitcher’s duel for this one.
