Bad Phillies Outfield Gets Bader From Trade With Twins

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The Phillies have spent the first four months of the season battling the Mets for the top spot in the NL East despite getting almost no positive production from their outfield. All three positions landed on my annual Replacement-Level Killers lists, and at this writing, their outfielders’ net WAR of 0.6 is the third-lowest total in the majors, ahead of only the Guardians and Royals. Ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline, Philadelphia took a step to address that problem by trading two prospects to the Twins in exchange for Harrison Bader.

This could be more than just a typical two-month rental. Bader is making $6.25 million this season and has a $10 million mutual option with a $1.5 million buyout for 2026. The prospects heading to Minnesota are Hendry Mendez, a lefty-swinging 21-year-old outfielder from the Dominican Republic who’s spent this season at Double-A Reading, and Geremy Villoria, a 16-year-old righty from Venezuela who’s been pitching in the Dominican Summer League. Neither of them cracked the Phillies Top 30 Prospects list in late January, but things have changed in the past six months.

This is the third season out of four in which Bader has changed teams midseason. He was dealt from the Cardinals to the Yankees in exchange for Jordan Montgomery on August 2, 2022, and selected off waivers from the Yankees by the Reds on August 31, 2023; he spent all of last season with the Mets. Perhaps not coincidentally, he’s in the midst of his best season since 2021, when he hit for a 108 wRC+ with 16 home runs, nine stolen bases, and amassed 2.9 WAR in just 103 games (401 plate appearances) with the Cardinals.

This season, Bader is slashing .258/.339/.439 (117 wRC+) with 12 homers, 10 steals, and 2.0 WAR in 96 games (307 plate appearances). He’s improved his offensive production from its meager 2022–24 level (.239/.284/.360, 80 wRC+) by making some adjustments to his stance and swing, ones that Statcast’s new metrics have captured. For starters, he’s moved a couple of inches deeper in the batter’s box; he has also decreased the distance between his feet and closed up his stance by five degrees:

Take a look at the stance visuals from 2024, on the left, and 2025, on the right:

With those changes, Bader is swinging harder. His average bat speed has increased from 70.8 mph in late 2023 to 71.2 last year and 73.3 this year, with his fast swing rate rising from 14.8% to 33.3% over that span. Though his average exit velocity of just 86.6 mph is down 0.6 mph relative to last year, placing him in the 10th percentile, his barrel rate has increased from 6.4% (34th percentile) to 11.5% (70th percentile), with his hard-hit rate increasing from 35.1% to 40.1% as well.

Even as he’s increased the tilt of his swing and the angle of his attack by a degree relative to last year, Bader is hitting the ball on the ground more often than ever; his 49% groundball rate is way up from his 36.5% in 2023 and 42.8% last year. With that, he’s taken advantage of his 74th-percentile speed, legging out 16 infield hits, compared to 19 over the previous two seasons combined. That speed has helped him beat his .225 xBA by 33 points, and his .385 xSLG by 54 points.

Defensively, Bader, who won the 2021 NL Gold Glove for center fielders, has played all three outfield positions for the Twins this season, making 57 starts in left field, 17 in center, and five in right, with a lot of in-game moves and late-inning entries padding his total appearances in left (70) and center (33). Prior to this year, he hadn’t played a corner outfield spot since 2018, but the Twins have let a healthy Byron Buxton cook in center, pushing Bader to left. Small-sample caveats apply, but Bader’s defensive metrics have been excellent in both left (8 DRS and 3 FRV in 496 innings) and center (5 DRS and 1 FRV in 179 2/3 innings). Over the past four seasons, across 2,655 2/3 innings in center, he’s totaled 24 FRV and 6 DRS.

The Phillies can use the help at any outfield position. Their left fielders — mainly Max Kepler, with Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, Weston Wilson and Otto Kemp each adding 25 to 39 plate appearances at the position — have combined to hit .190/.298/.340 (79 wRC+) with so-so defense (1 DRS, -4 FRV) en route to -0.3 WAR. Their center field offense from Marsh and Johan Rojas (with five plate appearances from Cal Stevenson) has been even worse, with a combined line of .238/.300/.326 (75 wRC+); they’ve netted 0.8 WAR with another mixed bag defensively (-4 DRS, 5 FRV). In right, Nick Castellanos has sunk a slightly above-average offensive line (.266/.307/.431, 103 wRC+) into the red (-0.2 WAR) because of his brutal defense (-14 DRS, -12 FRV); he’s now 4-for-4 in landing on my annual Killers lists, but the Phillies have shown no inclination to quit him.

As for the return, Mendez, who is listed at 6-foot-3 and 175 pounds, was originally signed out of the Dominican Republic for an $800,000 bonus from the Brewers in January 2021. At hitter-friendly Reading, he’s hit .290/.374/.434 (131 wRC+) with eight homers and six steals. He’s currently a 40-FV prospect, with updated notes from Eric Longenhagen now on The Board:

Originally a Brewer, Mendez would have been in the DSL in 2020 but instead made his debut at the Maryvale complex in 2021 and hit the ground running thanks to his preternatural contact feel. His youth and superlative bat control and hand-eye coordination made him a notable young prospect immediately. As Mendez progressed into the mid-minors with Milwaukee (and had a three-inch growth spurt) it became clear that the downward-cutting nature of his swing was going to be a problem as it relates to his power output, and also that Mendez’s defensive fit (he’s a bad left fielder) was going to make it very important for him to remedy that. He was traded to Philly for Oliver Dunn just after the 2023 season ended and hit just three homers in 2024, but still posted an above-average overall line because his bat-to-ball ability is that good. Mendez had not slugged over .400 since entering full-season ball, until this year… Mendez still has issues that will likely prevent him from hitting for power. His groundball rate has hovered around 60% throughout his career, which would tie him for the big league lead in 2025; his bat path simply does not allow him to lift the baseball. But Mendez has gotten stronger and he’s physical enough to hit for power right away if he ever makes an effective swing change. He’s also a very disciplined, patient hitter. Mendez is going to be a nice big league role player despite his flaws, though his overall impact is going to be limited by 30-grade outfield defense.

Villoria, who will turn 17 on August 14, is listed at 6-foot-2, 175 pounds. He’s pitched just 14 innings in the DSL, where he’s struck out a third of the batters he’s faced while posting a 4.50 ERA. More from Longenhagen:

Villoria who signed for $425,000 in January, is not someone who’d be on the main section of a prospect list just yet, but he’s definitely a prospect. The 16-year-old’s fastball has averaged 90 mph during the last month or so even as he’s worked a max of four innings in a single start. The tailing shape of his fastball is not ideal for bat-missing utility, but obviously this is such a young pitcher that it might change over time. The makings of two good secondary pitches are already here, Villoria can create bat-missing sink and tail on his changeup, and his mid-70s curveball flashes plus depth. Though he’s a medium-framed youngster and vanilla athlete, it’s plausible Villoria is just so young that I’m underrating how projectable he is. He’s a deep, deep projection prospect with advanced secondary stuff.

Eric also supplied some video:

While Villoria may eventually become an impactful pitcher, he might not even sniff the majors for another half-decade — or longer. For a team in win-now mode, with such a glaring weakness in the outfield, Bader is a solid addition who should help the Phillies on both sides of the ball.

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