After spending most of the 2024 season in touching distance of the top spot, Sabalenka has become a dominant No. 1 since taking it back from Iga Swiatek last fall. Though she fell just short of winning a third straight Australian Open title, she has only grown her points lead in the last six weeks, reaching back-to-back finals in Indian Wells and Miami, winning the latter.

The transition to clay has done little to slow Sabalenka down: she kicked off her European swing with a run to the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix final, where she finished runner-up to Jelena Ostapenko. A two-time champion in Madrid, the top seed shook off a slow start to win a 10th match against good friend and former doubles partner Elise Mertens.

Across the net will be a familiar foe in Peyton Stearns, who nearly topped Sabalenka last year at the BNP Paribas Open. The American has been out of sorts for most of the season, failing to clinch a first-round upset over Emma Navarro at the Australian Open, losing four of her final five matches of the hard-court swing. After an unexpected split from coach Tom Hill, Stearns has looked stronger in Madrid, upsetting Doha champion Amanda Anisimova en route to the Round of 16. Still, Sabalenka has looked much better, certainly compared to last year’s Indian Wells form when Stearns held match points, and the No. 1 should advance. Winner: Sabalenka—David Kane

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