The grass season is short and sweet — and therefore extremely volatile. But that doesn’t begin to explain this highly unlikely pairing in Saturday’s Wimbledon final that will produce a first-time champion at the All England Club.

Amanda Anisimova, the No. 13 seed, was well outside the Top 400 early last year and wound up losing in the last round of qualifying at Wimbledon. And now a few days from her first visit to the PIF WTA Rankings Top 10, she’s into the first Grand Slam final of her career.

No. 8 Iga Swiatek hasn’t won a tournament since collecting her fourth Roland Garros title last spring. After losing in the Paris semifinals, she’s had the best grass-court season of her life, winning nine of 10 matches, the last one a forceful 6-2, 6-0 performance against Belinda Bencic.

Wimbledon: Scores | Order of play | Draws

Earlier Thursday, Anisimova defeated No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in a match that ran more than two-and-a-half hours.

The early rounds of Grand Slams are littered with first-time matchups, but this is only the third Wimbledon final of the Open Era featuring two players who have never met at the Hologic WTA Tour — which makes this one so intriguing.

Who’s going to take the crown this year? We make the case for both players:

Advantage, Swiatek 

With all the exciting new players coming into the game, the 24-year-old Swiatek doesn’t produce a lot of “the youngest since …” statistics.

But here are a few significant precedents to consider. Swiatek, at 24 years and 30 days, is the youngest woman to reach:

• Her sixth Grand Slam final since Justine Henin in 2006.
• The final on all three surfaces in Grand Slam events since Henin circa 2003.
• A major final for four consecutive years since Naomi Osaka (2018-2021).

“Tennis keeps surprising me,” Swiatek said in her on-court interview. “Honestly, I never even dreamed it would be possible to play in the final.”

Sensational Swiatek strikes on Centre Court ✨

Iga Swiatek produces a remarkable performance against Belinda Bencic to win 6-2, 6-0 and reach her first #Wimbledon final 👏

A defiant semi-final showing from the No.8 seed 👊 pic.twitter.com/NGGOI62uIk

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 10, 2025

One theory going around makes sense. Because she was so absorbed in winning those four titles in five years at Roland Garros (and all the commitments that entails), she came into the grass-court season understandably depleted. This year she took a few weeks off, practiced in Mallorca and came into Wimbledon fresh and eager.

“Honestly, I think it’s easier if you haven’t won Roland Garros and also if you had more time to practice,” Swiatek said. “If I win Roland Garros and then I come here and everybody ask me already about … They put, like, super high expectations.”

Her fabulous forehand and footwork play well on grass and, at the urging of coach Wim Fissette, Swiatek is being more aggressive with her serve and, rather than settling in to defend long points, looking to end them after two or three shots. This fortnight, it’s been a deadly combination.

Swiatek has won 78 percent of her first-serve points, the best mark of any player that got past the first round. Throwing in a bagel to complete a semifinal is audacious stuff, and it’s a window to the confidence she’s feeling right now.

With a significant edge in her ability to cover the court, Swiatek will lean into that aggressive mindset against Anisimova.

And there’s this: Swiatek has won all five of the major finals she’s played. A sixth would mark her 100th match-win in Grand Slams, a fitting milestone on the surface she wondered if she’d ever conquer.

Advantage, Anisimova

In the quarterfinals, Anisimova won 11 of the first 14 games against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and found herself a game away from a career-defining victory when the nerves rushed in. Eventually, though, she won the tiebreak, 11-9.

A similar scenario was in play in the semifinals, when Anisimova had a break-point opportunity for a 5-1 lead in the third before Sabalenka got it back on serve at 4-5. With a screaming forehand winner, Anisimova converted her fourth match point.

“In the third set I knew that I was going to really have to go for it,” Anisimova told reporters. “Her level just kept increasing and getting better and better throughout the match. So to be able to come on top, I really had to bring my game and do as much as I could.

Sabalenka couldn’t disagree.

“I have to say that she was more brave today,” she said. “Maybe when I was just, like, trying to stay in the point, she was going for all — she was playing more aggressive.”

Confidence? In the biggest match of her career, Anisimova defeated the World No. 1 for the sixth time in nine matches.

To beat Swiatek, she’ll need to start fast. In 2025, Anisimova has won 28 straight matches when she takes the first set. She passed the ultimate test against Sabalenka, who had come back to win 11 of 13 matches this year when she dropped the first set.

“The moment of this young woman’s life” 👏

Amanda Anisimova completes an extraordinary semi-final to defeat No.1 seed Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 and book her spot in her first ever #Wimbledon final 💥

Take. A. Bow. ♥️ pic.twitter.com/WexH4VL2k2

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 10, 2025

Anisimova’s backhand is her biggest strength, but on Thursday she took good care of her second serve, winning 24 of those 40 points — the biggest statistical disparity in the match. She also saved an impressive 11 of 14 break points.

It’s been quite a journey for Anisimova, who walked away from tennis halfway through the 2023 season. She reached the French Open semifinals as a 17-year-old and eventually struggled with the pressures of expectation.

“When I took my break, a lot of people told me that you would never make it to the top again if you take so much time away from the game,” Anisimova said. “That was a little hard to digest because I did want to come back and still achieve a lot and win a Grand Slam one day.”

Anisimova scored her first Top 10 win in a Grand Slam, beating Simona Halep in Paris. Six years later, she notched her second against Sabalenka.

She’s playing with the joy and fearlessness of that long-ago 17-year-old, who now knows what she didn’t know before.