Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight and best bets across the Premier League fixtures and explains why the underdog tag suits Man Utd against Arsenal.
Chelsea vs Leicester, Sunday 2pm
After three straight defeats in the Premier League, Chelsea playing back-to-back home games against Southampton and Leicester could not have come at a better time for Enzo Maresca.
The Foxes, Maresca’s former club, have given up hope based on recent performances and defend their box with such a lack of conviction that Chelsea will not have to overcomplicate things to create big chances. Just putting the ball into the box will be enough.
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A player that likes making those runs and attacking crosses is Enzo Fernandez, who is playing the best football of his Chelsea career at the moment. He has scored two in his last two-and-a-half games. His 12/1 first goalscorer price with Sky Bet looks an avenue to explore.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
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Tottenham vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
The fact that Bournemouth are favourites to win away at Tottenham tells you the story.
It shows you how far Spurs have fallen this season under Ange Postecoglou, and what a barnstorming job Andoni Iraola is doing on the south coast.
Spurs have lost 14 Premier League games – only the bottom four have lost more – and their season hangs on their home clash with AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League on Thursday night. There are few excuses now for Postecoglou.
I am not sure they will have the legs, midfield mobility or defensive nous to live with the Cherries, who ran all over them in the reverse fixture, winning 1-0 but posting some impressive underlying attacking figures of 3.71 worth of expected goals from their 21 shots.
Antoine Semenyo will revel in the space offered to him in transition and he operates in an area where Spurs are weak, between Pedro Porro and whoever plays right centre-back. The 9/4 for Semenyo to score rates as a great wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Manchester United vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
No matter what Arsenal did in midweek against the circus act that was the PSV backline, this is still a team riddled with an unreliability in front of goal.
Back-to-back blanks in the Premier League is still relevant despite the goal bonanza in midweek. They mustered only three shots on target across those two previous games, despite taking 33 shots.
United have shown some functionality in being able to play a backs-to-the-wall defensive game, beating Fulham away in grizzly fashion and restricting Ipswich to slim pickings in terms of chances when playing with a player less for 55 minutes.
They can make this a struggle for Arsenal and I have seen worse 4/1 shots with Sky Bet than United’s home-win price here.
Remember, under Ruben Amorim, United have gone to Liverpool and drawn, beaten Manchester City and knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup. When tasked with being the underdog, they have had their woof days.
Based on United’s tendency to fail to score before the break – it has happened in 17 of their last 20 matches – the 0-0 half-time correct score at 13/8 with Sky Bet is also a runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
West Ham vs Newcastle, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
The case to bet against Newcastle here is an easy one, with them priced up as clear favourites to win the match.
What is on the horizon has not been factored into the betting enough. Eddie Howe can talk as much as he wants about complete focus being on this game but players will have one eye on next Sunday’s Wembley date against Liverpool.
Their overall performance is likely to be affected based on past fixtures involving teams in their final game before a cup final. If you take out Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea from the equation, of the 21 clubs to reach a major domestic final, 13 of them suffered a defeat in the game before the final.
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Highlights from the Premier League clash between West Ham and Leicester
Some of those defeats were shock results too, like Watford losing 4-1 to West Ham at home before the 2019 FA Cup final and Crystal Palace losing 4-1 away at Southampton before the 2016 FA Cup final.
Being without Anthony Gordon and Lewis Hall is another huge blow for the Toon, who are so dangerous down the left flank when that pair combine.
West Ham to win at 2/1 with Sky Bet looks a fine bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: West Ham to beat Newcastle (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bets…
- 1pt on Jeremy Doku to have +2 shots & +1 shot on target (13/8 with Sky Bet) ✅
- 1pt on Maxence Lacroix to be fouled at least twice (7/2 with Sky Bet) ❌
- 1pt on West Ham to beat Newcastle (2/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt treble on Doku +2 shots, Lacriox to be fouled once & West Ham double chance (9/2 with Sky Bet) ❌
Best Bet singles (1 unit) Best Bet multiples Total P+L Matchday One -2.10 -1 -3.10 Matchday Two +1 -1 -3.10 Matchday Three -3.00 -1 -7.10 Matchday Four +3.90 +11 +7.80 Matchday Five -2 -1 +4.80 Matchday Six -1 -1 +2.80 Matchday Seven 0 -1 +1.80 Matchday Eight -3 0 -2.80 Matchday Nine +1 0 -1.80 Matchday 10 +2.38 -1 -0.42 Matchday 11 +1.4 +5 +5.98 Matchday 12 0 -1 +4.98 Matchday 13 -2 -0.5 +2.48 Matchday 14 0 -1 +1.48 Matchday 15 -1 -1 -0.52 Matchday 16 -1 -1 -2.52 Matchday 17 +2 -1 -1.52 Matchday 18 -1 -1 -3.52 Matchday 19 +3.5 -1 -1.02 Matchday 20 +3 -1 +0.98 Matchday 21 +1 0 +1.98 Matchday 22 -2 0 -0.02 Matchday 23 -3 0 -3.02 FA Cup fourth round -1 0 -4.02 Matchday 24 -2 -1 -7.02 Matchday 25 0 -1 -8.02 Matchday 26 -2 0 -10.02
