The Royals have sought to emulate the Rays in many ways, poaching manager Matt Quatraro and bench coach Paul Hoover from the organization. Owner John Sherman has talked about having a more sustainable approach to competitiveness, like the Rays have done despite a shoestring budget. The team has won fewer than 80 games just twice in a full season since 2007, winning 90+ games nine times over that stretch.
The Rays have also won two pennants in that time, but still have yet to win their first championship. Now the future of the franchise is in question, as damage to Tropicana Field due to Hurricane Milton has left the team to play in Steinbrenner Field, a minor league park that serves as the home of a Yankees affiliate.
The Rays are coming off a disappointing losing season last year at 80-82 and have traded away Isaac Paredes, Aaron Civa;e, Jason Adam, Zach Eflin, Jose Siri, and Randy Arozarena in the last year. They got off to a slow start this year, but are currently riding a five-game winning streak, sweeping the Padres on the road over the weekend.
Kansas City Royals (14-15) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (14-14) at Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
Royals: 3.14 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 3.69 runs allowed/game (7th)
Rays: 4.21 runs scored/game (18th), 3.71 runs allowed/game (8th)
Steinbrenner Field is generally a hitter’s park, but it could be one of the windiest parks in MLB with the wind blowing out in afternoons, but blowing in for evening games. The Rays were shut out three times on their most recent homestand, but overall they have hit 19 of their 25 home runs at home and are averaging 4.47 runs per game there. Rays hitters have the third-highest groundball rate.
Jonathan Aranda has exploded this year with a wRC+ of 184, fifth-best in baseball, although he is hitting just .154 against lefties. Injuries have thrust former Mizzou outfielder Kameron Misner into the lineup and he has taken advantage of the opportunity. He has enjoyed home cooking, batting .350/.404/.675 with three home runs in Tampa. Christopher Morel is tenth in baseball in barrels-per-plate-appearance but also has the highest strikeout rate in the game at 40 percent.
Junior Caminero was a top prospect in baseball, but after a hot start in April he has hit just .220/.265/.429 this month. Chandler Simpson stole 104 bases last year in the minors, and has come up and been a sparkplug for the Rays in his first eight games with speed and sensational defense. Yandy Diaz continues to pound the ball in the ground with a 52.8 percent groundball rate.
The Rays have the sixth-most steals in baseball as a team, with Jake Mangum a perfect 8-for-8 in attempts. José Caballero has been a solid defender at short, but Caminero has struggled at third, and Morel has been a liability in the outfield.
Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR 1B Yandy Diaz (R) 125 3 2 .241 .280 .379 0.1 2B Brandon Lowe (L) 106 4 0 .220 .255 .340 0.0 3B Junior Caminero (R) 112 5 1 .248 .286 .348 0.3 DH Jonathan Aranda (L) 97 4 0 .309 .412 .556 0.9 LF Christopher Morel (R) 87 3 2 .256 .333 .449 0.5 RF Kameron Misner (L) 81 3 1 .315 .358 .562 0.7 SS José Caballero (R) 61 1 7 .241 .328 .407 0.5 CF Chandler Simpson (L) 33 0 3 .400 .455 .433 0.4 C Danny Jansen (R) 71 1 0 .150 .282 .233 0.1 Bench PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR C Ben Rortvedt (L) 35 0 0 .100 .229 .133 -0.2 IF Curtis Mead (R) 38 0 0 .125 .237 .156 -0.2 IF Taylor Walls (S) 77 1 4 .164 .260 .209 0.1 OF Travis Jankowski (L) 19 0 0 .278 .316 .333 0.0
Starting pitching has long been a strength for the Rays, despite a consistent roster churn. Rays starters collectively have a 3.74 ERA this year with the fifth-best strikeout rate. Taj Bradley has three quality starts this year, including his last time out against the Diamondbacks when he gave up three runs over six innings. He held the Royals to five scoreless innings with just one hit in his only start against them last year. His 97 mph fastball is one of the highest velocities for a starter, but opponents have hit .273 against it this year.
Injuries have hit Drew Rasmussen the last two years, but he has returned this year with the sixth-lowest ERA of any AL starter with at least 20 innings. His four runs allowed in five innings in his last start against Arizona were the most he has given up in a game this year, and he gave up his first home run of the year. Rasmussen features a tough cutter that had a 40 percent whiff rate last year that opponents are hitting .067 against this year.
Shane Baz has also had to overcome injuries and has made just 28 starts over the last five years, but when healthy boasts one of the best fastballs in the game. He tossed seven shutout innings against the Padres in his last start, and has twice put up double-digit strikeouts in a start this year. He has the seventh-best strikeout-to-walk ratio among qualified starter. He also has a flyball rate of 46.3 percent, one of the highest in baseball.
Cole Ragans is still questionable for his start on Wednesday after suffering a mild groin strain in his last start. Noah Cameron – who pitched just two innings on Saturday, could be a possibility to start if Ragans can’t go.
Tuesday, April 29, 6:05 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR Tuesday, April 29, 6:05 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR RHP Michael Lorenzen 3.90 3.92 27.2 7.8 3.6 0.4 RHP Taj Bradley 5.08 4.36 28.1 8.6 3.8 0.2 Wednesday, April 30, 6:05 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR LHP Cole Ragans 4.40 2.72 30.2 13.5 2.6 0.9 RHP Drew Rasmussen 2.10 2.27 25.2 9.5 2.1 0.8 Sunday, May 1, 12:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR RHP Seth Lugo 3.08 4.60 38.0 6.9 2.8 0.2 RHP Shane Baz 2.45 3.05 29.1 11.1 2.8 0.7
Rays relievers have a 2.99 ERA, fifth-lowest in baseball this year. Former Mizzou pitcher Pete Faribanks has converted all six save opportunities this year. Lefty Mason Montgomery boasts a 99 mph fastball, one of the highest velocities in baseball. Manual Rodriguez has the seventh-best strikeout-to-walk ratio among relievers and a groundball rate of 63 percent. Mason Englert has one of the highest hard-hit rates in baseball at 46 percent. Lawrence native Garrett Cleavinger has a reverse split this year, with righties hitting just .115 against him.
Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR RHP Pete Fairbanks 2.38 2.87 11.1 7.9 4.8 0.3 RHP Edwin Uceta 3.55 5.18 12.2 7.1 3.6 -0.2 LHP Garrett Cleavinger 2.53 3.33 10.2 13.5 1.7 0.1 RHP Manuel Rodriguez 2.25 2.63 12.0 9.0 0.8 0.2 RHP Hunter Bigge 2.77 6.51 13.0 7.6 2.8 -0.3 LHP Mason Montgomery 4.66 5.33 9.2 12.1 2.8 -0.1 RHP Eric Orze 0.00 2.76 7.0 5.1 2.6 0.1 RHP Mason Englert 3.21 3.12 14.0 7.7 1.9 0.1
The Rays have been streaky so far this year, but they’re trending up right now. These two teams split their six games last year, but the Royals haven’t won the season series since 2017. The minor league park will pose some unique challenges, but perhaps the wind will blow in the Royals’ favor this week.
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