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The 2025 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 3, at Churchill Downs. Journalism announced himself as one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby horses with a win at the Los Alamitos Futurity as a two-year-old last December and has continued getting better, winning the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby in his three-year-old season. With 122.5 qualifying points, he ranked third in the Road to the Kentucky Derby standings and is now bound for Churchill Downs as part of the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. Sired by 2007 Preakness winner Curlin and trained by 2021 Preakness winner Michael McCarthy, Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.

Journalism is followed by Arkansas Derby winner Sandman and Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty at 8-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling. 

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez, even though he’s one of the favorites. In fact, Demling says Rodriguez doesn’t even hit the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Of the 150 horses that have won the Kentucky Derby, 12 have gone on to sire a Kentucky Derby winner and trainer Bob Baffert is hoping for a 13th with Rodriguez. Sired by 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, who was also trained by Baffert, Rodriguez cruised to a 3 1/2-length victory from the front at the Wood Memorial.

However, Baffert has noted that Rodriguez is similar to Authentic in his immaturity. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Authentic had four extra months of time in the barn and was able to run against high-quality fields in the Santa Anita Derby and Haskell Stakes before winning the Kentucky Derby in September 2020. Rodriguez wasn’t tested in the same fashion in his defining win at Aqueduct and he’ll have a harder time front-running for 1 1/4 miles against a 20-horse Kentucky Derby lineup. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Although no Japanese horse has ever won a Triple Crown race, few horses in the world can compete with Luxor Cafe’s pedigree. Luxor Cafe is the son of American Pharoah, who is one of only two horses in the 21st century to win the Triple Crown. American Pharoah captured the Triple Crown in 2015 and won nine of 11 career races, including eight of nine Grade I races, as arguably the greatest horse of all time.

Luxor Cafe has made a name for himself in Japan though, winning both the Hyacinth Stakes and Fukuryu Stakes since February to qualify for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Luxor Cafe pulled away from the field late in the Fukuryu Stakes in a victory similar to many of American Pharoah’s wins. Although Luxor Cafe faces a significantly tougher field than he ever has in Japan, Demling thinks 15-1 odds is too long for a horse with his pedigree and results. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who “has a legit shot.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures