Robert Whittaker won’t give up.
Few would blame “The Reaper” if he decided at any point in recent years that the time for chasing championships was over. When he lost his rematch to Israel Adesanya. When he was thoroughly demolished by Dricus du Plessis. When he had his teeth reconfigured by Khamzat Chimaev.
Even after all that, the 34-year-old has refused to declare he’s simply showing up to work for love of the game or to pick up a paycheck. Whittaker still believes he has another title run in him, despite almost six years having passed since he wore gold around his waist. Can you blame him?
Just when it looks like Whittaker should be counted out, he drags himself off the canvas, knocks off a fellow hopeful, then gets back in the gym to start the miserable process all over again. On Saturday, in the main event of UFC Abu Dhabi, he has the thankless task of stopping the streaking Reinier de Ridder, with no guarantee a win gets him any closer to another shot at du Plessis or Chimaev, who fight for the middleweight title in August. In short, Whittaker is fighting for survival.
Don’t expect de Ridder, the dark horse contender of the division, to show him any mercy.
Also Saturday, former bantamweight champion Petr Yan fights Marcus McGhee in the co-main event, Shara Bullet looks to bounce back from his first loss when he takes on veteran middleweight Marc-Andre Barriault, Asu Almabayev meets short-notice replacement Jose Ochoa in a flyweight bout, and light heavyweight finishers Nikita Krylov and Bogdan Guskov open the main card.
What: UFC Abu Dhabi
Where: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday, July 26. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 3 p.m. ET also on ABC and ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Robert Whittaker (7) vs. Reinier de Ridder (10)
It sucks to say it, I think this is the end of the line for Robert Whittaker as far as title contention goes.
Reiner de Ridder has an obvious advantage that past Whittaker foils also possessed: he’s a big motherf*cker. That’s relative to Whittaker, a onetime welterweight, but RDR is particularly rangy and difficult to deal with, plus he’s incredibly strong in the grappling department. Even though Whittaker has literally made a career out of outsmarting and out-striking larger opponents, that’s becoming more difficult to do as he approaches the twilight of his career.
Certainly, should the fight advance to the championship rounds, the tide turns in Whittaker’s favor. Despite being a two-division champion in ONE, de Ridder has fought past the third round just once in his career and if Whittaker pushes the pace, “The Dutch Knight” could find himself in uncomfortable territory.
Take your pick: Does Whittaker outlast de Ridder and take a decision or score a finish in the later rounds? Or does de Ridder rush Whittaker down for a finish in the early rounds?
I’ve got de Ridder continuing his unexpected march to a title fight.
Pick: De Ridder
Petr Yan (5) vs. Marcus McGhee
Petr Yan is somehow way more experienced than Marcus McGhee, but also considerably younger. That’s weird. And also one reason why Yan is so heavily favored here.
Let’s not take anything away from McGhee and how he earned this spot. The 35-year-old dabbled in MMA as an amateur starting in 2012, but didn’t turn pro until 2020, when he immediately impressed with his natural knockout power. That has carried over into the UFC, where he quickly separated himself from the middle of the pack before outpointing top 20 bantamweight Jonathan Martinez. Even though McGhee is wild at times, his strength and athleticism can compensate for any in-cage errors (so far).
Unfortunately for McGhee, the margin of error when fighting Yan becomes increasingly slim as the fight progresses. Yan could have difficulty dealing with the aggressive McGhee in Round 1, but once he makes it past the first five minutes, expect him to lock in as usual and turn into the fully automatic striking machine we all know and love. There’s still so much we don’t know about McGhee’s ceiling as a contender and Yan is a big step up from Martinez, and a galactic step up from anyone else McGhee has fought.
So we’re going to find out what McGhee’s limit is here, because if he beats Yan, he’s one fight away from challenging for the bantamweight title. That’s a scenario I predict stays purely hypothetical as I have Yan coming out on top after an entertaining three-rounder.
Pick: Yan
Shara Magomedov vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Shara Bullet, this is your time to shine.
With respect to my fellow Canadian Marc-Andre Barriault, the assumption here is that Magomedov styles on him early before finishing in the first or second round. We’ve seen inconsistent outings from Magomedov before, but Barriault’s high-offense, low-defense approach makes him perfect highlight-reel fodder for Magomedov, who has to prove he’s learned from a humbling loss to Michael “Venom” Page.
I haven’t seen enough from Barriault in his recent fights to convince me he can slow Bullet down. He’s just as inconsistent as Magomedov and hasn’t shown the focus to break out of the middle of the middleweight pack. Even if Magomedov isn’t a future world champion, his striking alone puts him a notch above Barriault. If Barriault can somehow wrestle his way to a win, it will be the first time I’ve seen it.
Bullet by first-round knockout.
Pick: Magomedov
Asu Almabayev (13) vs. Jose Ochoa
OK, Asu Almabayev, let’s see how much you learned from that loss to Manel Kape.
Almabayev looked like a sleeper contender before running into Kape this past March, when the top contender styled on him and snapped his impressive 17-fight win streak. When it comes to mixing the martial arts, Almabayev is as good as anyone in the 125-pound division, but his mettle was put to the test by the aggressive Kape. Non-stop pressure proved to be a weakness for him and that’s something Jose Ochoa can bring to the cage Saturday.
True, Ochoa is a reckless striker willing to eat one to give one, but he also brings the kind of relentless offense and unorthodox movement that Almabayev struggled with in his most recent outing. If Almabayev is thrown off of his game again, can he change tacts and meet Ochoa on his terms or will he be overwhelmed?
I like both of these guys to be mainstays in the UFC’s flyweight division for years, but someone has to go down tonight and I have Ochoa winning and taking Almabayev’s spot in the rankings.
Pick: Ochoa
Nikita Krylov (13) vs. Bogdan Guskov (15)
The real question with the main card opener is whether it will fall to the “guaranteed finish” curse?
You know how it goes. The matchmakers put together two fighters that have been historically averse to going to the judges and somehow end up with a 15-minute slog in which neither man nor anyone tuning in to watch is left happy. This has all the makings of an excitement trap game as it were, with Nikita Krylov having 28 finishes to his name and Bogdan Guskov only going to the judges once in 20 pro bouts.
Let’s be optimistic here and pick someone to score a big KO, in this case, the fast-rising Guskov. Krylov is extraordinarily tough, but he’s hittable, and Guskov doesn’t need too many openings to find a fight-ending blow. Krylov will definitely work to take this fight to the ground in Round 1, so we’ll soon get a picture of how this fight plays out if he’s successful in taking Guskov down.
I trust Guskov to keep this one standing and for him to get his hands going in the second round, where he’ll land a haymaker that puts Krylov flat on his back.
Pick: Guskov
Preliminaries
Bryce Mitchell def. Said Nurmagomedov
Carlos Leal def. Muslim Salikhov
Da’Mon Blackshear def. Davey Grant
Amanda Ribas (10, WFLW 13) def. Tabatha Ricci (12)
Ibo Aslan def. Billy Elekana
Steven Nguyen def. Mohammad Yahya
Martin Buday def. Marcus Buchecha
