Cooper Flagg’s Mavs See Surprising Drop in Win Total Projection

(Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)

Cooper Flagg’s Mavs See Surprising Drop in Win Total Projection originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

The Dallas Mavericks endured a disaster 2024-25 season from Christmas Day on through the play-in tournament, but many fans have already begun exchanging feelings of despair with excitement for next season.

In a benchmark offseason, the Mavs won their first NBA Draft lottery and acquired one of the best rookie prospects in recent memory in Cooper Flagg. Dallas also brings back a wealth of star power and quality depth on a roster filled with team-friendly contracts.

The major concern heading into next season is the ACL recovery of superstar point guard Kyrie Irving, who underwent surgery in March. The Mavericks signed veteran ball-handler D’Angelo Russell in the meantime to run the offense until Irving returns.

Some sportsbooks, however, believe Irving’s absence – or perhaps a full season without traded star Luka Doncic – will be extremely detrimental to their record.

BetMGM lists the Mavs’ 2025-26 win total at a shockingly-low 38.5.

That mark is 19th in the NBA and 10th in the Western Conference.

It is also among the biggest drops from the last preseason’s projection. Last year, the Mavs’ win total line was set at 50.5. That’s a 12-game turnover to now.

Dallas might not have the scoring punch at the beginning of the season without Kyrie, but the front court projects to be one of the strongest in the league with Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford holding down the fort inside on both ends.

Davis is a capable scorer from multiple levels, and he’ll need to turn into the top offensive option for the first time since joining the Mavericks.

Defensively, the Mavs should be more than capable to be a playoff team in the West. Along with the front court, versatile role players like PJ Washington, Naji Marshall and Dante Exum are expected to be contributors with their unique two-way skillsets. Flagg also profiles as a useful piece that impacts winning in various ways once he gets his feet wet in the league.

Of course, this projection all but assumes that Dallas will get off to a slow start amid Irving’s recovery, but if the Mavs can get above-average facilitating from Russell, Exum and the rest of the guard rotation early in the year, a 50-win season can still be possible if Irving comes back strong in time for a late-season run going into the playoffs.

The Mavs’ unique depth might encourage Irving to take a cautious and extended rehab program, but Jason Kidd will still want to stack up wins to set up a favorable playoff position for his eventual return.

More luck with health – and no unfathomable mid-season trades – will help the Mavericks this season compared to last, but only time will tell if this roster can surpass their surprising 38.5 win-total prediction.

This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 8, 2025, where it first appeared.

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Cooper Flagg’s Mavs See Surprising Drop in Win Total Projection

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