The PGA Tour continues the Florida swing with the fourth signature event of the season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy look poised for a showdown at a golf course where both of them have enjoyed success.
I’m surprised Rory hasn’t dominated more here, given his skill set and the way his friend Tiger Woods used to show up and ask everyone who was playing for second place. Alright, that last quote was actually from Larry Bird at an NBA 3-point contest, but we can all see Tiger talking trash like that after winning here eight times in 14 tries.
The last two weeks have seen relative unknowns win on the PGA Tour while some big names have spent more time playing on virtual golf courses for the TGL. Joe Highsmith’s caddie, Joe LaCava IV, probably had the most recognizable name to casual golf fans tuning in at the end of tournaments the past two weeks. LaCava IV has been on the bag for Highsmith since the end of the 2024 PGA Tour season and they have had some nice finishes, but none being better than Highsmith shooting back-to-back 64s to win last week at the Cognizant Classic. Highsmith is the first golfer since 2016 to make the cut on the number and then come back to win the golf tournament on the weekend.
Highsmith, Brian Campbell, Aldrich Potgieter and Jacob Bridgeman all played their way into the fourth signature event over the last few weeks. Highsmith and Potgieter’s game actually set up well for Bay Hill.
The biggest key for my model this week is swing speed. The rough at Bay Hill is especially penal. Players will need distance off the tee, but that doesn’t guarantee success as most fairways tend to be extremely thin in the landing areas, which leads to nasty lies in thick rough. The greens are on the larger side and run extremely fast, which can lead to difficulty avoiding three-putts. The weather will affect play on Sunday, in particular, as wind and storms are expected.
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds
Course information
Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Location: Bay Hill, Fla.
Designer: Dick Wilson
Par: 72
Length: 7,466 yards
Average green size: 7,500 square feet
Past champions: 2024 Scottie Scheffler, 2023 Kurt Kitayama, 2022 Scheffler, 2021 Bryson DeChambeau, 2020 Tyrrell Hatton, 2019 Francesco Molinari, 2018 Rory McIlroy, 2017 Marc Leishman, 2016 Jason Day, 2014 & 2015 Matt Every
Betting slip
Scottie Scheffler (+350) finished T3 at the Genesis Invitational without his A-game. He has dominated here since his first start in 2020. He gained over five strokes off the tee in each of the last two years while gaining over 1.2 strokes around the green in all four trips. You can pounce on Scheffler for first-round leader at up to +1200.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) looked like he was poised to contend here last year before he had a nightmare ball-striking week where he lost over 9.5 strokes combined off the tee and on approach. Before that debacle, he had three top-10 finishes here, including a T3 in 2019. He has gained over five strokes on approach in two of his last three measured tournaments and finished T5 his last time out at the Genesis Invitational.
Russell Henley (+4000) has two top-six finishes in his last three tournaments and drove the ball well at the Cognizant Classic. He will have to rely on accuracy this week and hope for a tournament where scores are closer to par than Scheffler’s 15-under winning score from last season. He finished T4 here last year and has gained over 1.6 strokes off the tee four different times here.
Shane Lowry (+4000) finished T11 at the Cognizant Classic after gaining over 5.5 strokes on approach. He finished third here last year, gaining over seven strokes combined off the tee and on approach. He will need to putt the way he did at Pebble Beach a few weeks ago if he is going to contend this week, but I can’t ignore him when he is playing this well with his irons.
DFS plays
Scottie Scheffler ($12,000) is priced too close to the field with his history here.
Rory McIlroy ($10,800) is $1,200 cheaper than Scheffler and almost feels like a trap this week. I might be having flashbacks to him killing some of my best teams last year when he struggled at Bay Hill. McIlroy is going to be very popular at this price and I don’t blame anyone, but I will play Scheffler more than him this week.
Justin Thomas ($9,400) has gained over 13 strokes combined on approach over his last two measured events. He has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in all three trips to Bay Hill and has improved his finishing place each season.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100) See above.
Russell Henley ($8,800) See above.
Shane Lowry ($8,200) See above.
Robert MacIntyre ($8,000) has teed it up once here and was lights out on the greens while struggling with his ball-striking on the weekend. He has had an excellent start to the season off the tee and has only been held back from contending by his approach game. He will need to be sharper with his irons this week, but I can see him surprising at this price.
Taylor Pendrith ($7,900) is struggling big time with his putter coming into this week but has been excellent off the tee all season. He lost over 2.3 strokes with his putter at the Farmers Insurance Open and still contended. If he can just be near even on the greens, I think he could pay off as a pivot from some of the other guys in this price range.
Corey Conners ($7,800) has four straight top-21 finishes here, with a solo third in 2021 being his best finish. He hasn’t been as sharp with his irons lately which has seen his finishes suffer. I wouldn’t be surprised if he bounced back this week with a solid top-25 finish at a decent price.
Ben Griffin ($7,600) finished T4 in back-to-back weeks while gaining over nine strokes combined on approach over both tournaments. He finished T14 here in 2023 and has been hot with his putter lately as well.
Michael Kim ($7,600) is playing some of the best golf of his career and has four straight top-13 finishes to show for it. He has gained strokes in every major category over that span and has seen some success here with a T17 back in 2017. The choice between Griffin and Kim is a tough one and as of right now, I am playing Griffin just a bit more than Kim.
Aaron Rai ($7,300) gained over nine strokes on approach at the Mexico Open, and he gained over five strokes on approach the last time he teed it up here in 2023.
Nick Taylor ($6,700) has gained over 1.8 strokes on approach in every tournament since his win at the Sony Open. He gained almost 5.8 strokes on approach at the Genesis Invitational his last time out. He finished T12 here in 2012.
Aldrich Potgieter ($6,500) has incredible club head speed, and the ball explodes off of the face when he makes contact. The stark contrast between his swing and Brian Campbell’s during the playoff at the Mexico Open will long be remembered. His iron play is erratic, so that may hurt him this week, but he will be fun to watch attacking the doglegs off the tee either way.
Isaiah Salinda ($6,400) has gained over 1.9 strokes off the tee in three straight events and has gained over seven strokes combined on approach in his last two tournaments.
Joe Highsmith ($6,200) has gained strokes off the tee in four straight events while gaining over 1.2 strokes on approach in four straight tournaments. He was excellent to end 2024 from tee to green and seems to have recaptured that form.
One and done
Kurt Kitayama missed the cut as a heavy favorite at the Mexico Open for me, but that missed cut didn’t hurt me in the standings as most of my league-mates didn’t have anyone near the top of the leaderboards. Daniel Berger’s struggles on the back nine and on the weekend hurt me at the Cognizant Classic, but not nearly as bad as another poor finish in a signature event will hurt me. The choice this week seems to be between Scheffler and McIlroy for everyone who is down in the standings. I don’t want to curse Scheffler this week with my pick, but here I am, putting the bad vibes on him. Who are you taking?
(Photo of Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler: Harry How / Getty Images)
